The BJP which had created a ‘wave’ in the State in the wake of its massive electoral victory in Lok Sabha elections in 2014, has ebbed away. Narendra Modi as the party’s prime ministerial candidate had promised that once in power, he would drive out all ‘Bangladeshis’ staying illegally in the State. Like many of his other pre-poll promises, it has also not been fulfilled, causing great disillusionment in the Assamese-speaking people in the Brahmaputra Valley. But the BJP has succeeded in eroding considerably the support base of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), virtually pushing it to the wall.

The entry of a section of Congress dissidents including MLAs led by former minister Himanta Biswa Sarma into the BJP has created new problems. Initially it was feared that in the event of a BJP victory, Sarma will stake his claims for chief ministership. This caused widespread resentment among the old leaders and workers. The central leadership of the BJP was aware of this and to put an end to all speculations in this regard, named Sarbananda Sonowal, the present Union Minister for Sports and Youth Affairs, as the party’s chief ministerial candidate in the event of a BJP victory. The latest political grapevine has it that Sarma is now toying with the idea of floating a political party of his own.

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and his contemporaries are now septuagenarians and octogenarians. The mantle has now to devolve on the shoulders of a fresh crop of new and young leaders. But the old do not willingly make room for the young. Yet, this transition is unavoidable and has to be effected. And a clear message has to be given that family connexions will no longer automatically ensure nomination or succession. This is creating certain pressures and problems within the organization which the party is trying to overcome. The emphasis is on those who have literally ‘risen from the ranks’.

The Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) founded by Akhil Gogoi in 2005 has been fighting for the demands of the peasants and for the protection of environment. It is not a political party but commands widespread support among the rural people. It has been highly critical of the BJP from the beginning but was not supportive of the Congress either. The Congress started trying to narrow down its differences with the KMSS. The objective was to win over, failing which to neutralize. Insiders say that the differences have indeed been narrowed down though an electoral support to the Congress by voters loyal to the KMSS cannot as yet be taken for granted.

The Hindutva politics of the BJP and the recent incidents targeting students in the Hyderabad Central University and the Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi have alienated the student community from the saffron party. If they find that the Congress in Assam is trying to get out of its traditional conservative mould and willing to accommodate the youth and place them in positions of leadership at various levels, the Congress is likely to find a greater acceptability among the students.

As things stand now, the Congress estimate is that if it can win around 60 out of 126 seats in the State Assembly, it will be able to form the government, in spite of the BJP improving its tally from the present eight to around 20. The BJP’s ally Bodo People’s Front (BPF) may bring it the support of another five or six MLAs in the new House but still it will be far short of a majority. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) of Badruddin Ajmal is expected to more or less retain its present strength of 18. In case the Congress needs a tie up with some other party after the polls, its natural choice will be the AIUDF.

The Congress is pinning its hopes on the revamping of its organizational base. It has started setting up booth level committees and is trying to reach out to the youth for manning these committees not just during the elections but as permanent bodies that will act as the umbilical chord of the party with the people. These committees will also put in place a permanent mechanism for the party to draw in fresh blood for the party as a continuing process. (IPA Service)