Long back the JD(U) has made its ambitions clear: its mission is 'Nitish Kumar 2019'. The JD(U) is not willing to compromise its mission. This is the reason that Nitish is having a somewhat strained relation with Lalu Yadav. While Lalu has been working out his way to lead the secular forces against the BJP and especially the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wjo he describes as the fountainhead of communal and divisive forces and a person hostile to the backward caste peoples interest.

On his part Nitish has been at present working on the mission to float the grand alliance in the poll bound states Assam, Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. AIUDF, RJD and JD(U) launched a grand alliance of 'secular parties' in Assam and invited Congress to join them to fight BJP in the forthcoming assembly polls. 'We wanted a grand alliance in Assam of all secular parties on the lines of the recent Bihar polls to fight jointly against BJP and its communal politics,” said AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal. They also wanted Congress and AGP to join the alliance but while the fragmented AGP is still in the state of confusion the Congress dismissed the alliance; “Where is the RJD and JD(U) presence in Assam? Ajmal is simply trying to raise his importance by drawing up this insignificance alliance”. Little doubt the Congress, a grand alliance partner in Bihar stands isolated at the present and would ultimately have to be content with joining hands with the breakaway AGP.

Buoyed by the victory of the alliance in the Bihar the JD(U) had called for unity among opposition parties against the Narendra Modi government, saying the state elections have heralded an era of non-BJP politics in the country. The party leadership sought to project Nitish Kumar as alternative to PM Modi, saying he got better of the Prime Minister in a personality contest in Bihar and has the ability to lead a national front against him too.

To give a concrete shape to the move, Nitish Kumar, JD(U) President Sharad Yadav, RLD chief Ajit Singh, his son Jayant Chaudhary and Nitish’s poll strategist Prashant Kishor had a meeting at the residence of JD(U) general secretary K C Tyagi in Delhi on March 15 to work out modalities. The four parties can merge very soon. Talks are in final stages. The new party may come into existence shortly. But the moot question that is haunting the leaders is whether the image of Nitish will ensure alliance getting some honourable seat in the elections. In parliamentary politics winning the seats is the index of the popularity and acceptability of the leader.

JD(U) on the strength of its own MLAs would send Ajit Singh to the Rajya Sabha but will that would be enough for ensuring the victory of the alliance in the Jat Land of Uttar Pradesh. The recent communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar have drastically changed the demographic and political sensibility of the region. Jats have turned communal to a large extent. That is why how much difference Ajit Singh’s nomination will have on the ground?

The March 15 meeting decided to explore the possibilities of a grand alliance in these states on the lines of Bihar. The party has decided to resurrect an alternative at the national level. The resolution reads; “We will join hands with likeminded parties to counter BJP'. This move of the JD(U) has many implications. Currently, Congress led UPA is the principle opposition alliance at the centre. The current move of the JD(U) would be interpreted as another alternative to NDA. Interestingly while Nitish would not like at this stage to antagonize the Congress openly, the fact is he dislikes having any association with the grand old party. Nitish would always prefer to come out of the Congress' shadow at the national level.

Little doubt Nitish finds himself positioned against the Congress. Though the JD(U) does not have any presence in Assam, it has been striving to bring together the Asom Gana Parishad, and All India United Democratic Front as part of a grand anti-BJP alliance. It is an open secret that any anti BJP alliance would prove to be useless without involvement of the Congress. Obviously this exercise is purely aimed at projecting Nitish at the national level. The real mission, therefore, is 2019, not 2016.

One thing nevertheless is certain that the outcome of the electoral battle of UP would decide who will lead the anti BJP alliance. His Bihar party chief Bashistha Narayan Singh however holds: 'I believe Nitish Kumar has image, ability and diligence to do so. It is not for him to decide and all parties concerned will have to take a call”. The JD(U) has already extended its support to RLD candidates in the upcoming UP Assembly by-elections in Bikapur (Faizabad), Muzaffarnagar and Deoband (Saharanpur) constituencies as a prelude to the proposed unification.

Meanwhile the Congress has been going ahead alone in Uttar Pradesh. As a major move to revive the organization, the poll strategist Prashant Kishor has suggested the leadership to reach out to Brahmins. However a major section of the leaders feel inducting Brahmins will alienate the dalits and Muslims. The Brahmins are highly politicised and have antagonistic relation with others. In fact even Mayawati who a couple of years back had tried to rope in this section has now developed cold feet. Holding of Brahmin sammelan in eastern UP who constitute 20 per cent of the voters by the SP, BSP and BJP has been the ritual. But this is the first time that such a rethink is happening in the Congress. Kishor’s suggestion doesn’t go with Rahul Gandhi’s emphasis on the “marginalized people” and his tirade against “suit-boot ki sarkar.”

Some JD(U) leaders hold the view that situation in Uttar Pradesh is quite different from Bihar. In Bihar, the grand alliance represented the aspiration of the poor and OBC. But in Uttar Pradesh it would be identified as the organ of the landed gentry, the Junkers. It would affect the political base of the party in Bihar. A sense of uncertainty prevails in Bihar over the character and politics of the new party. How far the name and image of Nitish would work to inspire the voters is uncertain.

At a time when the BJP and the Congress are working out new combinations and permutations for the 2017 Assembly elections in the state it is not clear how Nitish and Ajit Singh would approach their prospective target. If the JD(U) leaders are to be relied the new conglomeration would project a young face and the emphasis would be on Young Pradesh. (IPA Service)