The BJP-led government at the centre has invested a lot in the last 22 months in the state to hasten the work on the rail corridor between Assam and Tripura, which is now a reality. It successfully held, for the first time, the South Asian Games, in Assam and Meghalaya. The national highways are being pruced up. The central public sector oil companies — ONGC and Oil India — have stepped up investment and corporate social responsibility programmes to improve community connect. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has, during his election campaigns in the state, has promised good times for the plantation industry — the workers and planters — saying how he valued Assam tea that helped him earn his livelihood as 'chaiwala' in younger days. Modi also did not spare the Congress government that ruled the state for decades since India's independence for its sustained pro-Bangla Muslim migration policy for political benefit.

Massive Bangla and Myanmarese Muslim migration into Assam over the years, leading to frequent communal riots, have been exploited by local regional parties such as BPF and AGP, who are now members of the BJP's poll alliance. The arrangement will additionally help BJP to exploit the local sentiment to take on parties such as All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by perfume baron and a top Muslim voice in the state, Md. Badaruddin Ajmal. Historically, Assam has a well-groomed Communist base. However, its scattered presence and strong campaigns by BJP, AGP and BPF, this time, is unlikely to help either Left or Congress which often received external support from Communist parties on communal issues. Yet, it is generally felt that voters, this time, may bring victory to some of the more independent and educated candidates outside the big parties as 566 candidates fight for 126 Assam assembly seats, of which eight are reserved for Scheduled Caste and 16 for scheduled tribes.

For 79-year-old Tarun Gogoi, Three-term chief minister of Assam, it is the mini-revolt in his state Congress party, led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, once the CM's most trusted lieutenant, that is troubling him and his party as much as the aggressive pro-development and anti-immigration campaign by BJP stalwarts. A hard working minister and strategist, Sarma's exit from the Gogoi government and the party and the Delhi-based Congress high command's poor handling of the issue have depressed party workers and even led to a rift in the party. Sarma, now in BJP, is one of the saffron party's strong campaigners. In fact, the campaigns for Gogoi by Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice president Rahul Gandhi lacked lustre in the face of low morale among local party leaders and supporters. Their attacks against BJP were mostly personal and negative. They spoke little about Assam's key issues such as lack of jobs, development and migration from across international borders.

In contrast, BJP's campaign, led by Prime Minister Modi, and such national level leaders and public communicators, such as External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Education Minister Smriti Irani and party president Amit Shah, energised the party's youth brigade and added flavour to the campaigns by two important BJP's allies, led by former Assam chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta of AGP and former Bodo insurgent Hagrama Mohilary of BPF. Youthful Union Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, who is projected as BJP's chief ministerial candidate, Jorhat MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa and BJP’s Sum Ronghang are among the party's local star campaigners. They pulled massive crowds wherever they campaigned and addressed meetings.

Noticeably, the Congress confidence, especially among its rank and file, has hit a new low in the face of a saffron surge and the fresh energy BJP leadership was able to create for allies AGP and BPG in the state. An Assam election gain is particularly important for BJP after its Bihar loss and a possible poor performance in West Bengal, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is certain to romp home despite a Congress-CPM poll alliance. Assam and West Bengal witnessed the first phase of their respective election calendars on April 4 — in 65 constituencies in Assam and 18 in West Bengal. BJP's Assam poll agenda is focussed on development with emphasis on sorting out the issue of clause 6 of the Assam Accord (1985) that deals with the question of citizenship and assimilation of various population groups and culture and laws that sternly deal with industries, businesses, SMEs or any other agencies employing infiltrators. If BJP comes to power, its election manifesto stresses on the state and the Centre working together closely for 'complete sealing of the India-Bangladesh border' along Assam. The BJP election manifesto was crafted cleverly to bring it close to the heart of majority of Assamese voters. (IPA Service)