The Congress seems to be on the backfoot in both the states – Assam and Kerala where it is ruling. Assam is the most interesting among the five states. This is where the BJP is on the upswing. One poll survey has predicted neck-to-neck race between the BJP and the Congress in Assam. India TV-Cvoter poll shows the BJP ahead. According to ABPNews opinion poll, the BJP-AGP alliance is expected to register a clear victory in Assam. It predicts 78 seats out of 126 for the BJP-AGP alliance with 44 per cent vote share. It says the ruling Congress could end up with just 36 seats and may get 34 per cent votes. The anti incumbency factor could go against the Congress. However, chief minister Tarun Gogoi is a good manipulator and in case of a hung Assembly he could form the government with the help of the AIUDF, which is expected to do well.

As far as West Bengal is concerned, despite the corruption charges and sting operations against the Trinamool, the party might sail through. Mamata Banerjee is expected to triumph but with a reduced majority. The BJP might improve slightly while the Congress- Left alliance might do better.

If Tamil Nadu chief Minister Jayalalithaa comes back even with a reduced majority and vote share, it will be the first time since the days of MG Ramachandran that a ruling party would come back to power. From the nineties, the DMK and the AIADMK have been alternating in power in Tamil Nadu. Two pre-poll surveys India TV-Cvoter and Loyala College surveys have predicted her return. Jaya has the advantage of the split in the opposition votes, a multi-cornered contest and her good work in the relief and rehabilitation after the unprecedented floods in Chennai. The DMK front including the Congress may not do as well as it expects.

Kerala should bring cheers to the Left Front as there is clear prediction that it will form the government defeating the ruling UDF led by the Congress. The UDF and the LDF have been alternating in power in Kerala. A win would perhaps make sure that the left parties will not disappear from the political scene. The Left and the Congress had entered into a strange agreement - which is fighting each other in Kerala and joining together to fight the TMC in West Bengal.

In Pondicherry, the incumbent chief minister N Rangaswamy, who came out of the Congress and launched the NR Congress five years ago, is likely to come back. The prediction is based on the last parliamentary elections and current trends. He is depending on his programmes and schemes in building by infrastructure projects and also paved the way for fee education in government schools and implementation of mid-day meal schemes.

The BJP, which saw a slide in 2015 by losing heavily in both Delhi and Bihar, is desperate that the Modi magic should continue. If it can improve its presence, that will make it possible for it to claim a pan-India status. Incidentally, the BJP has been depressed with the results of the civic polls in all these states. It lost five of the eight urban civic body polls. In Gujarat, the home state of the Prime Minister the Congress surged forward by winning 21 of the 31 panchayats. Even in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and West Bengal, it did not do well.

Even with a little improvement the BJP can claim success and break this bad spell. Moreover, the BJP also wants to improve its position in the Rajya Sabha where it is in minority. Next year there is also the presidential polls.

For the Congress it is a question of survival. After the impressive show in the Bihar polls in 2015, it is desperate to show some improvement even if it does not retain the two states it is ruling. While it was shying away from the coalition politics the ground realities have made the Congress opt for coalition, as a prelude to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Its prominence in the 2019 poll as a viable alternative will depend on its performance in the 2016 and 2017 Assembly polls. That was why it has tied up with the Left in West Bengal and with the DMK in Tamil Nadu. Both had been its old allies during the UPA regime.

The regional satraps are keen to ensure their hold on their fiefdom and by and large they may succeed including in Pondicherry. In short these elections are a curtain raiser for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and also whether the Modi magic continues. The 2017 Assembly polls to Punjab and Uttar Pradesh will further indicate the fortunes of the national as well as the regional parties. (IPA Service)