The party has completed a bruising and no-holds-barred campaign in a determined effort to wrest power from the thoroughly discredited United Democratic Front (UDF) government headed by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. Its national leaders, including general secretary Sitaram Yechury, Prakash Karat and S Ramachandran Pillai have pulled out all the stops to ensure the victory of the LDF in the assembly elections, the outcome of which will have a crucial bearing on national politics, too.

Of the 90 seats, the party is sure of victory in 58 seats. In over a dozen seats, it has a reasonable chance of romping home the winner. And in 15 seats, the fight is neck-and-neck. Top CPI(M) leaders claim the LDF would win between 80 and 89 seats. A latest survey also forecasts that the front would emerge victorious with 88 seats.

Heading the list is former CPI(M) state secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan, who is contesting from Dharmadam in Kannur district. Pitted against him is Mambaram Divakaran of the Congress, also a native. Also in the fray is BJP candidate, Mohanan Manatheri. It may be mentioned that the BJP’’s vote share in the constituency - 4900 votes in 2011 – almost doubled in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. .

This is causing a bit of concern to the CPI(M) camp. But they say the BJP won’t be able to repeat the LS show as the assembly elections are a different ball game altogether. Also, the CPI(M) is banking on a more than 15,000 majority which the CPI(M ) candidate, K K N arayanan secured in the 2011 assembly polls against Divakaran. Dharmadam has always remained a ‘red fort’ and it will remain so this time as well, aver CPI(M) leaders. They are sure of Pinarayi winning with an increased majority in view of the growing perception that the state is in for a change and he will be the chnief minister.

Party veteran V S Achuthanandan is seeking a fourth term from his old constituency of Malampuzha in Palakkad district. VS is oozing with confidence. But, bowing to the wishes of his supporters, the stalwart spent more time in his constituency in view of the stiff fight being put up by his Congress rival. The presence of a BJP candidate backed by Bharat Dharma Jana Sena(BDJS), which has pockets of influence in Malampuzha, makes it a triangular contest. Moreover, the presence of an AIADMK candidate is bound to deprive VS of at least a big chunk of Tamil votes which would otherwise have gone to him.

But the methodical campaign by the CPI(M) and the stature of VS would overcome all odds, claim party cadres and leaders. A heartening feature of this election was the campaign by Pinarayi himself in Malampuzha for VS. A development which has not only electrified the party cadres but has also sent a powerful message of total unity in the party.

Other key contests in which the CPI(M) figures are from Nemom and Vattiyurkavu In Thiruvananthapuram district and Palakkad in Palakkad district.

Nemom has hogged national attention as BJP veteran O Rajagopal is trying his luck again from the constituency. The BJP regards Nemom as one of its sure seats. The party is banking heavily on the fact that in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the local bodies elections last year, BJP polled more than 50,000 votes. But CPI(M) candidate V. Sivankutty is a picture of confidence in view of his good track record as the local MLA .

What is causing worry to the BJP camp is the distinct possibility of the consolidation of minority votes. Muslims and Christian Nadars number over 32, 000 and 27,000 respectively. Sivankutty is confident of securing bulk of the Muslim and Christian votes, helping him overcome the stiff challenge posed by Rajagopal. The BJP won’t succeed in opening its account from Nemom, aver both UDF and LDF cadres and leaders.

Another constituency where the CPI(M) is involved in a grim battle is Vattiyurkavu from where K. Muralidharan of the Congress is contesting. Murali, the sitting MLA, believes his performance as the MLA will help him retain the seat. But the BJP has made it a tough triangular contest by fielding none other than its state president, Kummanam Rajasekharan. The presence of CPI(M ) candidate, T. N. Seema has made it a fiery contest. Here again minority voters would be the deciding factor. Seema is confident of getting the lion’s share of minority votes. That explains the optimism in the CPI(M) camp of her victory.

Palakkad is another constituency which the CPI(M) hopes to win. Incidentally, Palakkad is another seat which the B JP feels it would win. The party has fielded its heavyweight, Shoba Surendran against N. N. Krishnadas of the CPI(M), a local and a veteran of many an electoral battle. CPI(M) circles say infighting over Shoba’s candidature would mar her prospects. As a result Shoba will finish a poor third behind the Congress candidate, Shafi Parambil, they say.

CPI(M) circles also claim the LDF has a clear edge in seven districts as against the UDF’s advantage in five districts. The districts where the LDF is ahead are: Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad, Trissur, Idukki, Kollam and Alappuzha. It is a neck-and-neck fight in Kottayam district, a traditional stronghold of the UDF. The UDF is sitting pretty in Malappuram, Wayanad, Kasargode, Thiruvananthapuram and Ernakulam.

A notable feature of the CPIM) list is that 58 candidates are new faces. There are 12 women candidates. The CPI(M) is also fielding eight independents backed by the party. The strategy is expected to benefit the party even in the IUML-dominated Muslim majority district of Malappuram. For instance, in Tanur, a citadel of IUML, the party is being given a run for the money by a CPI(M)-backed Independent.

The CPI(M)’s confidence of wresting power also stems from its success in keeping corruption as the main campaign issue. This has put the UDF, which had, for a brief while, managed to take the focus away from the corruption issue, on the defensive. (IPA Service)