Back then, the CPI(M)-led combination of Left parties, winning 113 seats, had barely nosed ahead of a resurgent Congress led by its younger leaders PR Das Munshi and Subrata Mukherjee which won 105. The then State Governor created a controversy by inviting the Congress first, instead of the Left leaders, to discuss the formation of a new government. The Congress, winning the support of other non-Left parties, did form a ministry that was short-lived — it lasted only three months or so. It was back to President’s Rule.

There are a few common elements and contrasts between 1971 and 2016 political scenarios. Older leaders on both sides, such as Jyoti Basu, Promode Dasgupta and Siddhartha Shankar Ray, are no longer around. However Subrata Mukherjee, a senior minister in the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) ministry, is among the few leaders who have retained their political relevance through the last 45 years! Sadly Mr Das Munshi, owing to his critical illness and memory loss, is alive only in the physical sense.

The present Left leaders are mostly younger men. Had he been alive, the late Ashok Ghosh of the Forward Bloc would have been another living link with 1971, along with Mukherjee.

The other common factor is more sinister: the continuing trend of political violence, the unending saga of bitter, armed clashes and blood-letting. The Seventies were an unusually volatile period for West Bengal. It seems the second decade in the new millennium will be no different. The more things change, the more they remain the same, as the proverb goes.

With only days left before the final outcome is announced, political opinion remains divided. Both the ruling TMC and the Congress-Left combination claim that they will win more than 200 out of the 294 seats. Analysts feel this is nothing but the usual political bluster from both camps, addressed more to their own cadres and supporters than a serious projection of the future scenario.

TMC leaders are confident of doing well in the south Bengal districts, which account for around 210 seats. The distribution of free cycles, and the supply of rice at Rs 2 a kilo and wheat at Rs 3.50 a kilo, the scholarships for Muslim students — have made a positive impact. Roads, streetlights and power supply too have improved. “Winning 150 out of these seats should not be difficult,” said a TMC spokesman.

Most encouragingly, an all-pervading cynicism about politics and politicians among people, whether in the rural or urban areas, according to TMC insiders, has turned out to be an unexpected advantage. Especially in the rural areas, scandals like Sarada chit fund scam and the recent Narada.com revelations, both effectively underscoring the deep-rooted corruption among top TMC leaders, have not made much difference to people whose living standards have improved.

On the other hand, spokespersons for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress-Left combo assert that the TMC will not get much joy in North Bengal, which sends around 70 MLAs to the Assembly. As for the supply of rice and so on, it is common knowledge that the centre pays the major part of the subsidy, not the State. A newsman who has visited the interior areas of South Bengal districts says, “It is true that few roads are better maintained, but certainly not all. In many areas, the supply of water is erratic. The farmers have not received much help from the TMC and suicides have been common. Even payments for working in the 100-day schemes under the MNREGA programme have been delayed.”

The parties opposing the TMC are naturally surer of winning more seats than the TMC in the urban and semi urban areas which effectively includes much of the south Bengal districts — North and South 24 Parganas, parts of Howrah and Hooghly districts. People in these parts are more vocal in their criticism of the TMC, its scandals and corruptions. The TMC has utterly failed to bring in new investments or in the creation of new jobs, while industrial closures and sickness of jute mill and tea plantations have assumed endemic proportions.

And the strongest indictment against the TMC remains its shockingly poor record in the maintenance of law and order, presumed to be the basic function of any government, whether in the urban and rural areas. The armed TMC gangs which roam around in bikes and extort money from big businessmen, traders down to the street hawkers and auto operators, are universally reviled and feared. The police have been neutralized. “West Bengal has become the country’s crime capital in rapes, arms smuggling, and illegal human trafficking,” is a common charge leveled against the TMC not only by political parties opposing it, but by the civil society spokesmen and media analysts.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s mood does not encourage much optimism among her supporters. She began sulking after the last round of polling was over, during her stay in North Bengal itself. It is reported that the state IB reports were not encouraging on the probably outcome of the polls. Bookies in Kolkata’s central business districts are known to have improved the odds in favour of the opposition.

What appears certain is that this will prove to be a very well contested poll, with little difference in terms of seats between the winners and losers. Also, the new government will not find it easy to run the administration, without major help from the Centre, given the state’s huge debt problem and economic weaknesses. Most analysts feel the new government will not be able to run its full tenure of five years.

To cap it all, there will always be the possibility of toppling the elected government by its opponents, in case the winners enjoy a very narrow majority. (IPA Service)