Conversely, the forecasts have spread gloom in the UDF camp. The only consolation is the forecast of a narrow victory for the UDF by a lone survey.

The percentage of votes polled in this election – 74 per cent in the first estimate by the Election Commission - is set to match the figure of 75 per cent for the 2011 assembly elections when the final figure comes.

The heavy polling has triggered claims and counterclaims by the UDF, the LDF and the BJP-led NDA. What it means is that all the three fronts have pulled out all the stops to ensure maximum participation in the voting process of their supporters.

The LDF camp, understandably,is brimming with confidence. The front is upbeat as the exit polls have said that the anti-incumbency factor will go against the UDF Government, heralding a change in guard. This is very much in line with the traditional pattern of the UDF and the LDF emerging the victor alternately.

The LDF believes the aggressive and, often, intimidating campaign by the BJP has caused a consolidation of the minority vote in its favour, as was the case in the local bodies elections. And, like in the local bodies polls, this factor will help it ease the UDF Government out of power.

UDF leaders brush aside this claim on the plea that the minorities will rally round their front. For instance, in Kasargod district, the fight is mainly between the UDF and the BJP, they argue. There, the minorities will opt to vote for the UDF because of the latter’s greater chance of victory. That is their reasoning.

But the LDF leaders do not agree. They say that even in Kasargod, the minorities will stand by their front this time in view of the Congress’s soft stance towards the BJP. In other districts like Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad, Trissur, Ernakulam and Alappuzha, the minorities, both Muslims and Christians will overwhelmingly vote for the LDF. The exit poll predictions are in line with their calculations and optimism.

The NDA leaders, however, say that this time around, Kerala Assembly polls will be an entirely different ball game. They are right to an extent. There is no doubt that the emergence of the BJP-led NDA has added a new dimension to Kerala politics. And, for the first time, the Kerala polity is all set to its bipolar nature; it will, hereafter, be a tripolar affair in Kerala.

BJP also claims that the party will certainly open its account in Kerala Assembly this time. But the ground reality is that it will be extremely difficult for the BJP to realize its dream. For one, unfortunately for the BJP, in all the constituencies where the party has a good chance of winning, minorities form a sizable section of the voters. To cite one example, let us take Nemom from where senior BJP leader O. Rajagopal is contesting. In Nemom, Muslim voters and Christian Nadars number over 32, 000 and 27,000 respectively. It will be an uphill task for the BJP to overcome these formidable obstacles and emerge the winner there. A more or less similar situation prevails in other BJP strongholds in Thiruvananthapuram district like Vattiyurkavu, where BJP State president Kummanam Rajashekharan is pitted against powerful Congress candidate K. Muralidharan and CPI(M)’s TN Seema, besides, Kazhakkuttam and Kattakkada.

In other words, the consolidation of minority votes may, in all probability, spoil the party for the BJP. And the party may have to wait till 2021 to realize its dream of making it to the state assembly, aver LDF and UDF leaders.

LDF leaders also downplay the damage potential of the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena, the ally of BJP in Kerala. They contend that only the upper creamy layer consisting of rich Ezhavas may side with the BJP. The rank and file, traditionally left-oriented, is unlikely to ditch the CPI(M) and the CPI, they point out.

And, last but not the least, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘self goal’ may also adversely affect the BJP’s prospects in the State. Modi’s comparison of Kerala with Somalia has outraged the sentiments of Malayalis. And, despite denials by state BJP leaders, the prevalent perception in Kerala is that Modi’s ‘foolish’ remark was an insult to Kerala and Keralites; and the anger will certainly reflect in the voting pattern. And, in politics, what matters the most is perception. The PM’s tactical blunder will cost the BJP dear, say both LDF and UDF leaders.

Another basis for the LDF leaders’ optimism is that the Front has managed to keep the issue of corruption and scams tainting the Oommen Chandy Government in the centre-stage till the last minute, putting the UDF on the defensive. Poll surveys say over 60 per cent of the voters are disgusted with the scam-tainted and corruption-ridden UDF Government.

It is conceded that the LDF has a clear edge in seven districts: Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad, Trissur, Idukki, Alappuzha, and Kollam. And, if one were to go by the exit poll predictions, the LDF will spring an unpleasant surprise on the UDF by doing well even in traditional UDF bastions like Ernakulam and Thiruvananthapuram districts.

The UDF is set to lose a few seats even in its strongest fort. Malappuram. The IUML, Congress’s powerful ally, may lose at least three seats in the district:Tanur, Perinthalmanna and Nilambur.

Likewise, the Kerala Congress(Mani) will have to be content with only three or four seats as against its 2011 tally of 9. Even party supremo Mani is in real danger of losing, it is being predicted.

True, LDF leaders predict that the front’s tally will touch the three-figure mark this time, surpassing its record so far of 98 seats in 2006 assembly elections. But a reasonable estimate puts the front’s tally at anything between 78 and 84.(IPA service)