It will be a three-cornered contest between SP, BSP and BJP. The Congress has remote chances of winning but may bag a few seats. For last few elections the BSP and SP have been alternating. In next year’s election, the real fight may be between the SP and BSP and BJP remaining on the fringe. The SP government, headed by Akhilesh Yadav, suffers from heavy anti-incumbency. UP has turned out to be badly ruled state with law and order situation having sharply declined. Little wonder then that Mayawati may gain.

Since the last elections the pattern of voting has changed. The coalition era has come to an end and the era of single-party rule has returned. This pattern may be seen in UP also.

As the elections draw closer, a question that is on the top of the mind of the voters in general is what Mayawati is doing? The BSP’s strategy for poll, it appears, is twofold; present itself as strong contender for power than the BJP and wean away Muslims from the SP. These days Mayawati is not letting go any opportunity to target the BJP, critically talking about the party’s endeavour to appropriate Dalits and saffronize B R Ambedkar’s legacy. The BJP chief at a rally on the occasion of 12th birth anniversary of Ambedkar reportedly said “our messiah is Ambedkar not Ram”.

Election in Gujarat is turning out to be most interesting. By the time the state goes to polls next year, the BJP would have completed around 20 years of continuous rule. This is long enough to create anti-incumbency against the government. The results of municipal poll in which the BJP retained the urban municipal corporations while the Congress managed to win the panchayats, have brought to the fore the question if the Congress can wrest power from the BJP in 2017. Low cotton price, non-availability of irrigation water for farmers, widening gap between rich and poor could be a few factors for anti-incumbency.

Eight reasons explain why there will be close battle; Anti-incumbency against Anandiben government; the BJP government has not been able to handle the Patidar agitation in a proper manner; Anandiben is not Narendra Modi, she is not perceived as charismatic as Modi; Muslims may return to Congress; the BJP has been traditionally strong in urban areas while the Congress in rural; the BJP has lost vote share compared to Lok Sabha poll in state elections in all state elections; decline in the state’s economic growth; and collateral damage. Modi would completed three-and-half years in office by 2017 end. His government’s performance will also have bearing on Gujarat poll. If there is anger against the Modi government at the Centre, this may be reflected in voting against the BJP in the state.

What could work for the BJP? Gujarati asmita could be a factor. Modi’s popularity and people identifying his rise to stardom with Gujarati pride could potentially stand out for the party. Lack of leadership in Congress may help the BJP in the state.

As usual the fight in Punjab is between Akali Dal and the Congress. In the past Akali Dal and the Congress have been alternating. The new factor this time is the entry of the AAP in the fray. Despite the tall claim of Arvind Kejriwal, the APP may get few seats but the party may damage the Congress.

There are a number of issues plaguing the state at present. Prime among them are corruption, unemployment, drug addiction and receding water tables that may pose a serious threat to the state’s agriculture. Revival of agriculture is a key issue which no political party had adequately addressed. Creating employment opportunity and tapping the human capital are also two challenges that the state must deal with in order to check the rising menace of drug addiction among the youth.

Drug menace in Punjab reached alarming proportions in 2014, even becoming a key poll issue and engaged the Opposition Congress and the SAD-BJP government in a bitter war of words throughout the year. How serious the drug problem in the state can be gauged from the fact that drugs, liquor and other narcotics worth Rs 800 crore were seized from Punjab by poll authorities ahead of Lok Sabha polls. In 2017 election drug menace is bound to be a key issue.

In Uttarakhand the Congress appears to have an edge because of the faux pas committed by the BJP by dismissing the Harish Rawat Government. (IPA Service)