While the BJP is galvanizing its mass organizations to reap maximum benefits from the next two rounds of assembly polls in 2017 and 2018, the anti-BJP forces are divided. The secular combination of JD(U), RJD and Congress which routed the BJP in the last assembly elections in Bihar, cannot be repeated in the other states going for elections in 2017 but if the anti- BJP parties are serious in preventing the saffron forces return to power after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, they can work out a minimum understanding based on the ground realities in each state. The fact is that in the elections to the seven states assemblies in 2017, Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, excepting UP, the Congress is the main political party confronting the BJP in the elections and if the Congress does badly, that will only help the BJP in at least five states.

Uttar Pradesh is the only exception where the Congress is not playing the main role in fighting the BJP.SP and the BSP are far bigger political forces in UP and if these parties can contain the BJP in the state and defeat it miserably, that will be a victory of the anti- BJP forces including the Congress, irrespective of the seats gained by the Congress in the UP assembly elections. In Goa and Punjab, Aam Admi Party (AAP) has expanded its operations and AAP leaders are confident of giving a good fight to the BJP in both the states. Originally the Congress is the main opposition and in Punjab, the Party has been geared into action by Captain Amrinder Singh who is confident of defeating the Akalis-BJP combination this time. Congress has to fight both the Akalis-BJP combination as also AAP and it is to be seen how the disgruntled masses in Punjab belonging to the Akalis-BJP support base behave in the elections. If these masses vote for AAP instead of Congress, that will help the Akalis. But many analysts say that the stock of the present Punjab ruling elite is so low among the masses, even if there is a division of anti-incumbency votes between the Congress and the AAP, the ruling combine will lose.

However, in Uttarakhand, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, Congress has to aggressively fight the BJP to retain the first three states and to improve its position vastly in Gujarat. In Gujarat, the Congress can have some electoral understanding with BSP which has good support base in some constituencies. Similarly, in Uttarakhand also, BSP support can be of help for the Congress to decisively defeat BJP in the elections. The prospects for BJP to get any new state in 2017 assembly polls , is dim and if the Congress and the regional parties can have some minimum understanding, the BJP will face big reverses as it has only its own government in Goa and Gujarat and its position is very vulnerable in Goa. In Gujarat, BJP may retain power but is sure to lose heavily.

That way, If the Congress and the regional parties can give a big drubbing to the BJP in the elections to the seven state assemblies in 2017,the momentum that will be generated by the BJP reverses in 2017 elections, will lead to the intensification of the anti-BJP mood in the country and it will have its impact on the state assembly elections in 2018.During this year, elections will be held to assemblies in Nagaland, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Congress has to give bitter battles in three states Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where BJP runs the governments. The Congress has to retain its majority in Karnataka which is facing bitter factional battle. Similarly in Chhattisgarh also, the Congress organization has split with the senior leader Ajit Yogi forming his own party. As against this, in Karnataka, the BJP has been able to reorganize the organization to give a big fight to the Congress in 2018 elections. In Tripura, the CPI-M is still in a commanding position and the main opposition party in the next elections will be the Trinamool Congress as most of the legislators have left the Congress to join Mamata’s party.

The hard reality of the Indian polity which the regional parties and the Left have to take into account is that the JD(U) and its allies are present only in the Hindi speaking states while the Congress is present in all the states, strong or weak and it is the only party which can take on BJP nationally at this moment. By not collaborating with the Congress, no anti-BJP front is possible and it will not be possible to defeat the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. CPI(M) central leadership is again making a grave mistake by still following the line of equidistance from the BJP and the Congress forgetting that the prime need of the hour is to build a broad front of secular and pro-unity forces to fight the divisive policies of the BJP which are communalizing the country. In fact in Rajasthan where the CPI(M) has some pockets of influence, it should have understanding with the Congress to defeat the BJP in the assembly elections. If the CPI(M) sticks to its socalled equidistance policy and does not allow any understanding with the Congress to fight BJP in the elections, that will adversely affect the prospects of forming a broad anti-BJP front which is the need of the hour.

Keeping BJP out of centre after 2019 Lok Sabha polls depends on the effective strength of the Congress in the states where the party is the major contestant against the BJP. The Congress has to weaken the BJP in the saffron strongholds in MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan and it makes sense for the Congress to have adjustments with the BSP and also with the left in these states in a limited manner. For the Congress, substantial gains in these states elections are of crucial importance if the momentum has to be generated in favour of a secular combination in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The anti-BJP front’s core group has to include the Congress, JD(U), RJD and the Left if it agrees to be a part. This core group can start negotiations with the other non-BJP parties which include AAP, Trinamool Congress, BJD, DMK, AIADMK, Samajwadi Party and BSP. These parties have varying perceptions and some may not be ready to join. But the core group has to work out a minimum level of understanding to reduce the size of the BJP in next Parliament. The BJP’s present strength of 282 out of 543 in Lok Sabha is a figure which is not the reflection of the real strength of the BJP. This result was out of an extraordinary situation when the Congress image was at its nadir and Narendra Modi was a big draw among the masses. Modi’s image has nosedived and with proper programme based campaigning, the secular and democratic forces can bring down the BJP strength to much less than 150. But that depends on the aggressiveness and the accommodating spirit of the anti-BJP forces. A great challenge lies ahead of them. (IPA Service)