Expectedly, there is a growing concern among the non-BJP parties about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s increasing influence. More so, after the recently held five state polls when BJP managed to create a hype over its victory in Assam and its increasing vote share in Kerala. After Delhi and Bihar, many had begun to question whether Modi could make it in 2019.

If recent history is to go by, three factors have pushed disparate groups of parties to make common cause – in 1977, 1989, 1996–and defeat the ruling party, at that time the Congress, which was the central pole of the polity. Now it is BJP. These were more than normal levels of anger against ruling dispensation, the creation of pivot in the alternative to hold it together and a leadership that had popular support. The longevity of the fronts is altogether a different story.

The Left fronts worked over decades in West Bengal and Kerala because a large party, CPI-M, held them together, and the additional adhesive in their case was a programmatic cohesion, which has been missing in other similar endeavour. In 1977, the pivot was the Janata Party formed after merger of five parties, and it was anger against Indira Gandhi’s 1975-77 Emergency rule abridging fundamental freedoms that brought them together.

The National Front in 1989, under VP Singh’s leadership was unprecedented in its sweep, bringing together virtually all the non-congress forces under one umbrella. It too had a centerpiece in the Janata Dal formation through merger of groups that had splintered away from the erstwhile Janata party. The three-tiered arrangement was backed by regional parties with the outside support of the BJP and Left parties.

The United Front government in 1996-97 was somewhat different, headed by two prime ministers, HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral, in two years, and inherently more unstable because of a larger Congress supported, from the outside, a smaller core.

In the absence of a strong pivot, it is the mass appeal of a leader which acts like a glue. This happened in 1977, when Jayaprakash Narayan helped create the Janata Party, and in 1987-89, when VP Singh managed to replace Rajiv Gandhi as “Mr Clean” and as prime minister in 1989. In these cases, mega egos of leaders proved their undoing. The bickering between the constituents of the Janata Party sent the government of Morarji Desai packing in two and a half year.

Though Mandal Kamandal puzzle ostensibly brought down the VP Singh government. It was really a large sized ego of the leaders of the Janata Dal that unleashed forces that spun out of control. Ditto with the United Front government.

At present a formation of regional parties, of equals, headed by mass leaders in their own right – be it Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee, AIADMK’s Jayalalithaa, Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik, JDU’s Nitish Kumar, BSP’s Mayawati or Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav – is that much more difficult to accept each other’s leadership. Nor is there a leader on horizon, at least as of now, who can bring these groups together. Nitish Kumar given his upright image and track record of good governance in Bihar, could play that role but he would need to find acceptance all over India, at least large party of North India.

There is no getting away from the fact that the Congress would have to be the pivot for a non-BJP front. The Congress may be ready to play second fiddle and even support a leader from as-yet-imaginary federal front as prime minister, rather than lead itself, so as to defeat the BJP. From all accounts, Rahul Gandhi is ready to revise his earlier “go solo” policy. But the Congress has to come across as a party on the ascendency bringing in new energy, rather than as an organization losing successive elections with no clarity on who will lead it.

It goes without saying that the BJP is not going to sit idle. Given the state-level contradictions – the DMK versus AIADMK, SP versus BSP, Mamata versus Left – the BJP will try and enlarge the scope of the NDA, knowing that alliances are going to be even more critical for it in 2019 than was the case in 2014. It is already reaching out to the AIADMK to join the NDA. Interestingly, on the day of the party’s victory in Assam, Modi focused not on the BJP but on NDA.

A lot more hinges on what happens in the elections in 2017 (Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand, in Gujarat) and in 2018(Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan), but the psychological barriers to cross will be UP, which will set the momentum for 2019. (IPA Service)