Prime Minister Narendra Modi had warmly congratulated state chief minister Mamata Banerjee after the TMC’s impressive victory in the 2016 Assembly polls. Not to be outdone in courtesy, Banerjee had returned the compliment, hailing the BJP victory in Assam.

Ritualistic as this was, it led to instant speculations suggesting that an ‘understanding’ had been reached between the two parties. A specific allegation to this effect was made by the Congress and the Left Front (LF) which had a controversial seat adjustment in the Assembly polls. The move could not prevent a disastrous electoral outcome.

Opposition leaders as well as political observers predicated their conclusions on several indications. First, the CBI probe into the multi-crore rupee Saradha chit fund scam shows no progress. Senior TMC leaders have been jailed for their involvement.

Second, the TMC expressed conditional support for the pending GST bill in Parliament, without bothering about other opposition parties. Third, in all recent meetings with the State chief minister, Central ministers pledged all support for major infrastructure development projects in Bengal. These include the widening of national highways, the building of a new Port and pending railway projects.

The TMC also promised full co-operation to the Centre in combating terrorism and Islamic militancy along the International border with Bangladesh. This, despite the party’s cherished support base among Muslims.

It seems however that the new found bonhomie cannot really be sustained.

First, the TMC revived its suspended political campaign to forge a political alliance among regional parties at the centre. The party resumed talks with Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalithaa, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, to set up a new formation to challenge the BJP. Chief minister Banerjee personally initiated such efforts. She instructed TMC MPs to protest strongly against Centre’s moves that caught the state on the back foot.

One example of this was the Centre’s move to route its subisidies for cooking gas consumers to Aadhaar card holders only. The TMC pointed out that many people were yet to receive their cards suggesting Delhi should go slow.

This naturally did not gladden hearts within the BJP.

No wonder, when Banerjee met Prime Minister Modi after a long gap in Delhi, the interaction lasted only 15 minutes. She repeated her old demand suggesting that the Centre either declare a moratorium on the repayment of the huge financial debt incurred by the state, or help it otherwise. PM Modi remained non-committal. So did Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley whom also she met. Clearly the BJP-TMC harmony was fading already.

The BJP is taking advantage of its overwhelming preponderance at the centre, politically outgunned as it may be in West Bengal by the TMC. It is keen to target the state at its weakest: its precarious financial position, not least because of the TMC’s brand of populist politics.

Now there is an official indication that the Centre may withdraw its 22 paramilitary companies from the four Maoist-affected districts: Midnapore(W), Purulia, Bankura and Birbhum (Jangalmahal area). The State is protesting against the move and wants these troops to stay on.

Here, Banerjee’s own rhetoric can prove embarrassing. She is very fond of pointing out with some justification, that under her rule, once troubled areas like Darjeeling or Jangalmahal ‘are smiling’. In fact over the last five years, killings, explosions, ambushes and kidnappings have gone down dramatically. The state has started several welfare schemes among tribals which have paid off, including the supply of rice at Rs 2 a kilo.

On the other hand, the Maoists remain considerably powerful in Chhattisgarh or Jharkhand.

The centre seems to have accepted her claims and decided to make more troops available in states where Maoists remain a force. Logically, the decision is unexceptionable. Why does the state government object?

The answer is simple. The Centre, through its schemes to help areas in India where comparatively poorer tribals live, finances welfare and development schemes in the affected states. The annual allocation for each affected district is around Rs 35-40 crore. In view of the improvement in the situation in the Maoist areas in Bengal, Delhi is actively considering a discontinuation of its assistance.

Here, the views of the BJP West Bengal units have played a role, say observers. The TMC swept the Assembly seats from the four districts. But from Banerjee downwards, TMC leaders claimed credit for the financial help and rice at a subsidy as the state’s own achievements. They did not mention the Centre’s contributions.

State BJP leaders tried their best to make this clear, but their publicity campaign was nowhere near that of the TMC. They bitterly complained to their Central leaders about this.

A third major irritant in BJP-TMC relations could well be the BJPs reported reconsideration on the demand for a separate state in North Bengal. The BJP is mulling a separate State Committee in Bengal for the Northern hill districts, Dinajpur, Coochbehar and Jalpaiguri. Party leaders, according to reports in the North Bengal media, feel that the move will increase their clout in Bengal. The ultimate objective: to carve a separate, smaller North Bengal state.

Several reasons have fuelled such speculation. First, the BJP has always supported the creation of smaller states. Second, the parry has sizable pockets of influence in North Bengal, including support bases among resident Nepalis and Gorkhas. The latter also want a separate State. Third and most encouragingly, the TMC is not as strong in North Bengal as in the South.

It is not without reason say observers, that only weeks ago SS Ahluwalia, a central minister, assured Gorkhas at a function that their autonomy aspirations would be respected by the centre. Days later a faction of the Gorkha league revived the call for a separate state. Given the BJP”s determination to set up its base all over India, the party’s present leadership may prove willing enough to rule out the earlier rejection of the Gorkhaland demand by LK Advani when he was Union home minister.

The BJP could be drawing a lesson out of its experience in Bihar. Here the party could not make much headway despite major pockets of support among tribals, against the RJD, JD, Congress and other parties within the erstwhile Bihar.

But as soon as the new tribal-dominated Jharkhand state was launched in 2000, following a Constitutional amendment, the BJP has acquired a much needed political foothold in the East.

Its success did not come easily. It was the steady, grassroot level activity among the tribals and socially backward communities in Bihar through its mass organizations like the Banbasi Parishad, that led to rich electoral dividends in Jharkhand. It was the outcome of a long term sustained effort.

To her credit, Ms Banerjee has not neglected the hills or North Bengal. By checkmating Gorkha autonomy through the establishment of autonomous authority for Lepchas, Limbus, Tamangs and Bhutiyas, and other older ethnic peoples who have no love lost for the new Gorkha settlers, she effectively stole the wind out of the sails of the Gorkha agitators. Further, development work done by the TMC between 2011-2016 has been far more impressive that what the LF had been doing in North Bengal as a whole.

Therefore the BJP will have an uphill struggle to take on the TMC in North Bengal. It will lose whatever Bengali support it now has in Bengal if it backs separatist demands in the area. It could well be a case of one step forward, three steps back for the BJP.

But the BJP, by regulating and monitoring the Saradha chit funds probe and playing according to the rule book on the question of helping Bengal financially, can certainly make life difficult for Banerjee. In the sphere of governance, it holds all the aces vis-à-vis the TMC

All in all, conditions are ripening for a no-holds-barred fight between the TMC and the BJP. (IPA Service)