Congress is hoping to revive the party in the state. The party’s hope to revitalize hinges on the decision of Priyanka Gandhi to campaign for the party. Congress leaders say people in her see charisma of her grandmother, Indira Gandhi; Priyanka is herself a vote-catcher.

Law and order in UP has emerged as an important election issue. Doubtless, the situation on this front, has deteriorated but Akhilesh does not think so. “It is an easy tool to attack my government”, he says. The CM does not think, his party would have an alliance with any party. “It makes no sense for us to ally with anyone at this stage. We are confident, we will form the government again”.

As he will be at the centre of 2017 poll, what will be his slogan? Akhilesh says “in four years since I became CM, our work is visible. Now we have moved to unmeedon ka Pradesh and roz naye kadam, to highlight things we have done beyond our manifesto promises”.

Asked if there is any possibility of early election, the CM said “I told the Election Commission I am ready if early polls are called. On my part, I wanted them on time. It will to my advantage. I will get more time to complete all my projects.”

Asked who is his main rival, BSP or BJP, Akhilesh said “depends. As of date, the BSP is at number three. BJP and BSP are in race for number two slot. Had the BJP so strong, why would it admit Swami Prasad Maurya and cobble up an alliance with smaller parties in east UP? They realize they have lost grounds.”

Has BSP an edge on law and order and other perception? The CM said “perception that Mayawati maintained law and order did not mean that she was being even-handed to all. Ask government officers; they couldn’t enter the CM’s house wearing shoes. They were humiliated. If law and order were so good, how were BSP numbers reduced to such an extent in 2012? A political party President’s house was burnt down by her workers. How is any of this good administration?”

SP and BSP have a loyal voter base in Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits which form more than 40 per cent of UP's population. Another advantage these parties have is strong leadership at state level, as well as district and city levels, an advantage that BJP doesn't have. In UP, the ruling SP is suffering a severe anti-incumbency sentiment and its popularity graph is sliding very fast.

So if we normalize these statements as equations, three deductions can be made; Congress will be reduced to a non-entity, Samajwadi Party will lose a huge chunk of its votes and the real fight would be between the BJP and the BSP.

For BJP, the major drawback is the lack of strong leadership at State level unlike in 2014 elections. So, chances are that if Mayawati manages to become the leader of sarv samaj (Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins), instead of remaining the supremo of just the Bahujan Samaj, she could turn out to be the Nitish Kumar of UP, even without a maha gathbandhan.

A cause of worry for Mayawati is ticket distribution. She had declared candidates for more than 300 seats in the past one year, but repeatedly change of nominees is likely to cause more friction within the party.

Mayawati has also directed party nominees and prospective candidates to visit Dalit localities and also asked leaders to revive BAMCEF (Backward and Minority Communities Employees Federation) — a shadow organisation of Dalit government employees, to counter BJP and Congress’ efforts to reach out to the community.

Mayawati has also asked party leaders to attract various castes in the 85 reserved seats of the state, which have the largest Dalit population and where BSP had often failed to perform, owing to lack of support from non-Dalit groups. Out of the 85 reserved constituencies, BSP had won only 15 in 2012 Assembly elections. While SP had won 58, Congress followed with four, BJP three, RLD three and independents two.

In Almost all the opinion polls published till now, a trend is being observed i.e BSP is gaining most number of seats closely followed by BJP. But none is getting absolute majority. (IPA Service)