It is not Bangladesh alone that stands to benefit from recent Chinese moves intended to enhance its regional influence. The China-sponsored Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) is currently examining prospects of developing Myanmar’s industrial infrastructure , power and other sectors. It is considering both joint ventures with local companies, as well as co-partnership with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank (WB), for specific projects.

There is little doubt that in the medium and long term, both Bangladesh and Myanmar will enjoy a stronger bargaining power vis-à-vis Beijing and New Delhi, as the undeclared competition between Asia’s two large neighbours to leverage their diplomatic outreach, gets keener.

Recent media reports suggest that Chinese authorities are aware of the challenge posed by India. Chinese analysts reportedly acknowledge that in Myanmar, India enjoys a certain advantage over China at present — an admission of the comparative unpopularity of China vis-à-vis other major powers in a democratic Myanmar freed from military rule. However, they are well aware of the somewhat ‘limited’ financial ability of India when it comes to sponsoring/financing major development programmes.

The Chinese assistance to Bangladesh will help the country in developing its existing railway network, with plans put forward to extend six new lines of communication mostly with India, right up to the Indo-Bangladesh border. At present, there are four points in West Bengal where the two systems connect. But there will be a need for greater connectivity in the future, as trade, business and industry continues to grow.

In recent years, India has been assisting Bangladesh in upgrading and improving its Railway system. The biggest project taken up so far is the laying of the broad gauge line linking Agartala in Tripura with Akahura in Comilla, a 15 kilometre long stretch. The cost, including the component of compensation for land losers, is over Rs 960 crore, which will be borne by India. Once built, the distance between Agartala and Kolkata by rail will be reduced to around 600 kilometres as against the present 1700 kms via Assam.

Also, Tripura, Assam and other NE states can use the Chittagong port to carry out their export trade because of the transit facility available through Bangladesh. Nepal and Bhutan will benefit similarly.

Bangladesh stands to earn a hefty transit fee once such traffic becomes operational. The combined rail/road movement within the region will complement the concept of the BBIN road transport agreement worked out earlier among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal.

This is not to suggest that China has been or will be, sidelined. If anything , the Railway projects it will help implement in Bangladesh could mesh very well logistically both with their proposed (BCIM—Bangladesh China India Myanmar) economic corridor and (b) their ambitious Silk Road and Belt initiative that seeks to link Venice with Shanghai , connecting over 30 countries along the way.

Interestingly, Chinese experts, as with Myanmar, have also speculated on how India could possibly react to its diplomatic thrust into Bangladesh. They figure that India may feel somewhat worried. On the other hand, it may result in India addressing Bangladeshi concerns and its economic needs more seriously, on a priority basis, according to available media reports.

India is known to be helping Bangladesh in developing/upgrading its road, ports and bridge construction work. It advanced a grant of around $1 billion dollars to Bangladesh some time ago and accepted most of Bangladeshi demands when it came to settling differences of coastal waters jurisdiction issues. It is helping build a thermal power project near the Sunderbans in Khulna, with Bangladesh power producing companies. In addition it has reduced tariff charged on a number of goods especially jute-based items, produced by its Eastern neighbour. These gestures have helped improve India’s image even among circles earlier wary of the intentions of New Delhi.

China has helped Bangladesh more in net financial terms. Between 1975 and 2000, China had invested over $217 million in different sectors of Bangladesh’s economy. Bilateral trade was around $670 million, which has increased considerably making it China’s third largest partner in the region. In 2002, the two countries worked out a Defence agreement with China providing arms, tanks and other items. Between 2005-08, China offered Bangladesh its help in nuclear co-operation, coal mines development, its gas and oil sector, as well as power generation.

Indian Defence experts admitted that China’s help in building and upgrading Chittagong port facilities was a cause of concern. China had its footprint also on Coco Islands close to the Andamans and the Hanggyi island, where it had set up naval facilities, some of which came close to India’s maritime areas, following talks with Myanmar authorities. Radar and other monitoring facilities at Coco have been recently upgraded.

Bangladesh, like Myanmar, has shown itself capable of playing off one major power against another. It did not proceed with the proposed construction of the Sonadia port by China, but awarded a similar project to India. Likewise, Myanmar has not hesitated in stalling the $3.6 billion Myitsone hydropower project on the river Irrawadi, citing environmental reasons in the Kachin area, not to mention stopping the Letpadaung copper mine project at Sagaing. At both places, locals protested strongly against the projects. Also, Myanmar media recently reported the Dalai Lama’s activities in considerable details, upsetting Beijing, which expressed its displeasure.

Of late China is strongly lobbying for the implementation of the hydropower project which, it pointed out would bring in very large revenues for Myanmar.

As regional rivalry increases on India’s Eastern seaboard and beyond, Beijing and New Delhi are actively engaged in handling rising tensions and balance their strategic interests. (IPA Service)