The conflict in the ruling SP has projected Akhilesh as the person in command of the party, while others have been reduced to local level leaders. With young CM’s rise and his occupying centre stage, the party will be able to carve out pre-poll political alliances in a far more smoother manner which was otherwise unthinkable due to pulls and pressure from several corners.

Most importantly, there is an attempt to create a sympathy wave in Akhilesh’s favour. He is being portrayed as a fighter against bad politics of his own family. For him, his commitment to fight strongly on the agenda of development and good governance is more than his love for his family. He is willing even to sacrifice that.

Akhilesh is no longer a reluctant politician. He may be criticized for certain acts but he has developed an understanding of politics and thus will not allow his uncles to split the party.

Another question posed is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement of a series of measure to flush out counterfeit and unaccounted money will have on UP elections? He announced that 500 and 1,000 rupee notes hoarded by anti-national and anti-social elements, will be invalid as a result of his measures.

Seen in the context of UP, the landmark decision, will adversely affect the BSP leader Mayawati and her party. She has allegedly amassed huge amount of unaccounted money. She is a series contender in the UP elections and hopes even to get a majority. How can she fight election without adequate funds? The same problem will be faced by other parties.

It is early to say if the BJP will be benefited by the steps taken to bring out unaccounted money held by most of political parties. If Modi succeeds and the growth of black money is checked and prices come down, the BJP may be gainer.

At present, however, people have been undergoing unprecedented hardship. Long serpentine queues are seen in front of banks with people struggling to get notes of Rs. 500 and Rs, 10,000 denominations exchanges. ATMs too are not functioning; according to top bank executives it may take more than a week to put them in order. People have run out of money even for emergency. So heavy is the rush that it is not possible to withdraw money from saving bank accounts. If elections are held now, BJP will be adversely affected.. Even after banks’ functioning becomes normal, the hardship faced by the people will be remembered for a long time to come and may affect BJP in the UP elections which are scheduled to be held early next year.

There is also talk of grand alliance in UP on the pattern of Bihar but there are serious differences. For example, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav can never come on the same platform; no party will join hands with the BJP. Both Akhilesh had Rahul Gandhi, Congress Vice-President, have spoken in conciliatory tones. There is a possibility that Congress and SP may enter in an electoral alliance and gain because of Akhilesh’s rising popularity. This may also consolidate their Muslim vote bank. Muslims account for 17 per cent of UP’s population and they sometimes decide the fate of the candidates.. They have considerable influence in 143 of 403 seats. They generally vote for a party or alliance which is in a position to defeat the BJP. Congress has been getting 15 per cent of Muslim votes in past five elections despite the fact that it was not seen playing on front foot.

As far as BSP is concerned, Eastern UP is party’s weakest link. Beginning from Gorakhpur, this area comprises Varanasi, Ballia, Mirzapur, Jaunpur and Pratapgarh. In Bundelkhand, the BSP has a strong presence. In other parts of the sprawling state, the BSP’s voting pattern differs and depends on electoral trends.

Samajwadi party had grown out of anti-dynastic politics propounded by Ram Manohar Lohia and Charan Singh. Mulayam Singh has generously mooted his kith and kin in politics over the years. The rise of factional leaders within the joint family enterprise has finally put this family club under deep stress. Interestingly, unlike most dynastic groupings, the voices of dissent came from within the family. (IPA Service)