Purely a family feud, the crisis has nonetheless endangered the opposition politics in Hindi heartland. While the opposition parties are in the state of inertia on the issue of evolving strategy to counter the BJP in the UP assembly election, it has the potential to blight the opposition politics during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

There has always been chafing between father Mulayam and son Akhilesh, but now it has reached to its breaking point. What has been the most depressing feature of the feud is the future of the patriarch, who symbolizes the extension of the socialist politics. A loyalist of Ram Manohar Lohia, Mulayam is the most sharp and astute politician. Every time media and experts tried to write his political obituary, he bounced back with vengeance.

Akhilesh was made the chief minister only to conciliate the family feud that had emerged after the death of Akhilesh’s mother, first wife of Mulayam. But he did not allow Akhilesh a free hand and it was justifiable too. Being a green horn in politics, he needed the guidance of Mulayam to run a state like UP. The current feud might not have taken an ugly form had Udayveer Singh, MLC, a close aide of Akhilesh not tried to criticize Mulayam’s second wife Sadhana Gupta of practicing black magic and hatching a conspiracy against Mulayam.

Akhilesh is up against his own father, who has scorned him of not being able to win seats. Mulayam even publically said that Akhilesh was accepted as chief minister only because he was his son and that he never had any 'individual standing in politics'. Little doubt Akhilesh has struck his father at his most vulnerable moment. Age and health are not on Mulayam's side.

No doubt Akhilesh’s tenure as chief minister has been a failure. During his rule state witnessed some of the most vicious communal riots in which thousands of Muslims were rendered homeless and had to suffer. Unfortunately he behaved like an ostrich when the Muslims were tortured and evicted by the goons and criminals. As a chief minister, he was hardly ever seen as interested in governance, except for letting some bureaucrats run the show.

Mulayam’s refusal to have any alliance ahead of Assembly polls is a strategic move to browbeat Akhilesh who has been emerging as darling of parties opposed to Mulayam. If the developments are indicators of the future course of the politics, it can be safely said that both JD(U) and RLD want Akhilesh on board. The Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is also keen on joining hands with the SP only if Akhilesh emerges as the face of ruling party.

The primary reason is he is the modern middle class face willing to cater to the needs of the market forces. But this perception is not based on ground realities. Baring the western UP, the broad political economy has not changed substantially which could throw a new political idiom and relations. The eastern UP with huge population still represents the semi colonial and semi feudal relations. In this region the class factor in the garb of caste component is still the dominant factor.

In fact the Congress strategist Prashant Kishor had argued with Mulayam to honour the general feeling and agree to Akhilesh as the pivot. It was this suggestion that prompted Mulayam to shut the door for alliance:'There will be no alliance for the UP Assembly polls. There will be only merger. If anyone wants to contest along with us, he will have to merge their party with ours' . Message is loud and clear he would never cherish the idea of diluting his identity and power.

Nitish Kumar had come to comprehend that the current crisis through which the Samajwadi Party was passing through, was the creation of father and son. More than being a political feud, it was of the nature of the family warfare. While father was not willing to provide enough space to the son, the son on his part was out to finish the politics of his father.

In this backdrop any alliance will prove to be non-functional. The alliance partners instead of fighting against BJP will be squabbling amongst themselves. One thing is clear that Uttar Pradesh is not Bihar and the ground reality is more complicated in UP. Formation of maha gathbandhan in Bihar was based on pure arithmetical permutation and combination. But in case of UP, besides the caste factor it is the political economy of the capitalist agrarian relations, that defines the contour of the politics. The UP politics is the thumbnail of the Indian politics. Any political formulation relevant to UP cannot follow in the footsteps of Bihar.

Nevertheless friends of Nitish have been busy trying to paint a magnum image of the Bihar chief minister. They reiterate that Nitish's absence would weaken Mulayam’s efforts to cobble up a coalition for the UP assembly polls. This is for from reality.

To be fair enough, Nitish is hesitant in entering into an alliance with Mulayam as he distrusts him. He nurses the feeling that the SP supremo ditched him and weakened his position among opposition parties. Had Mulayam been in the alliance, Nitish might not have to listen to the dictates of RJD chief Lalu Yadav and also he would have presented him as the real alternative to Modi.

The skepticism in the JD(U) about the role of Mulayam has been so acute that the party only a fortnight back had sought a clarification from Mulayam; 'Will he remain in the alliance with the proposed unified political outfit? The Bihar experiment was an eye-opener for us.” Nevertheless the two leaders of the Bihar Grand Alliance, Lalu and Nitish, do not share a common perception and vision on replicating Bihar experiment in Uttar Pradesh.

While Lalu Yadav participated at the Samajwadi Party's silver jubilee function on November 5, Nitish deliberately kept away. Nitish would have joined celebration if Mulayam had extended personal invitation. A personal invite from Mulayam would have carried enormous importance. Another factor which could not be ignored is; by siding with Mulayam he would not like to be identified as enemy of Akhilesh Yadav.

In the present political backdrop, Akhilesh represents the forces of change and neo liberal economic policies, but his father continues to symbolize the old caste relations and equations. No doubt the caste will be major factor in UP 2017 elections, but the emerging new market forces and changing political economy will be the decisive features. (IPA Service)