Shahdol Lok Sabha seat has a very crucial importance for the ruling BJP in general and for the Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan in particular. Shahdol is the reserved Tribal Constituency. It is important because a few months back the Congress succeeded in snatching the Jhabua tribal Lok Sabha Constituency. In case the BJP loses Shahdol, it may indicate that the BJP's influence over tribals has declined. How much importance the BJP attach to Shahdol that it chose to sponsor a Minister for the contest. But observers say that the choice of a minister has become a liability. The fact that he has been a minister, incumbency factor has affected his position. Contrary to this the Congress chose a young lady for the seat. She has been campaigning with remarkable confidence. She took full advantage of an obscene remark made by the BJP candidate. The Congress candidate is good looking and has attractive personality.

Referring to this the BJP candidate recited a few lines of a film song the lines are 'Dil dekho chehra na dekho'. She wrote a letter to the Chief Minister complaining against the Ministers remark. By and large voters share anger of the Congress candidate.

Due to factors which could not be identified, the climate does not appear to be favourable for the BJP. Contrary to this the Congress candidate is getting good response. Also contrary to earlier by-polls, the leaders of the Congress have put up a united show. Leaders of various factions of the Congress have given enough time by holding rallies and public meetings. Former Union Ministers Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijay Singh, general Secretary toured the constituency seeking support for the party candidate. This is regarded as a favourable factor for the Congress. There is yet another factor that the present tone of the Congress leaders is aggressive. They took full advantage of the currency crisis and described it financial terrorism. On his part the Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan held several road shows. During his speeches he used to blame the Congress for the miserable conditions of tribals. The Congress did nothing to improve their social economic plight.

Despite Chouhan's hectic tours he could not convince the voters about the gains of currency note change. People are angry because of the paucity of 100 rupee notes. Particularly farmers are very angry because they have not enough money to purchase seeds and fertilisers despite this being the sowing season.

The demonetisation has also affected business community. Shahdol constituency has a tribal area, where money lenders are found in abundance.

The impact of demonetisation of old notes can also be seen on money spent on electioneering. The leaders of BJP and Congress are having tough time arranging money for the party workers 72 hours prior to polling. The old notes are accepted at some places while at some, people refuse to accept them. There is problem related to money given to party workers to spend on election affairs.

Another problem being faced is in influencing village heads, who help in getting votes in tribal areas. Those party workers, who take old notes from party leaders, have to spend their day in getting them exchanged.

The outcome of Shahdol bye-polls is now linked not only to the prestige of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan but also of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as election results would help in assessing the impact of Modi’s decision.

In the first Lok Sabha election in 1951, Socialist Party nominee Bhagwan Dutta Shastri and Independent candidate Ramratan Gupta won from the seat. Then the seat was known as Shahdol-Sidhi and it was represented by two MPs. Two Congress nominees won the 1957 Lok Sabha polls. After 1957, the seat was renamed as Shahdol Lok Sabha seat and two-MP rule was scrapped. In 1962, the Congress candidate again won from the seat.

In 1962, the constituency was reserved for tribal candidates and socialists again got better of the Congress. Socialist Party candidate Buddhu Singh defeated Congress’ Jhalkan Kumari. Congress bounced back in 1967 and retained the seat in 1971. In post emergency election in 1977, Bharatiya Lok Dal candidate Dalpat Singh Paraste won the seat. The Congress again bounced back in 1980 with its candidate Dalbir Singh defeating Janata Party candidate Kundal Singh. Dalbir Singh, again won from the seat in 1984 as a Congress nominee. Present Congress candidate Himadri Singh is the daughter of Dalbir Singh.

In 1989 Lok Sabha elections, the Janata Dal won the seat with Paraste defeating Dalbir Singh. In 1991, Congress’ Dalbir Singh wrested the seat. The BJP won in 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2004 Lok Sabha polls. Congress’ Rajesh Nandini wrested the seat from the BJP in 2009 by defeating Narendra Maravi in a close contest. It was Paraste who got better of the Congress in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Gyan Singh, the present BJP candidate in November 19 poll, had made it to the state assembly in 2013 and became a minister in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan cabinet.

Shahdol Lok Sabha seat that covers eight assembly constituencies in Umaria, Katni, Shahdol and Anuppur districts has about 16 lakh voters. Out of the 8 assembly seats, two are with the Congress and rest with the ruling BJP. (IPA Service)