Despite a go-for-broke campaign for two Assembly seats in Tripura, the TMC lost both. The Left Front (LF) won. But for its hard-earned success in Tripura, there was nothing to cheer in the Left camp, its downslide continuing in Bengal. Addressing Tripura rallies, TMC leaders expressed their confidence that if present trends persisted, Ms Banerjee would undoubtedly be the next Indian prime minister, heading an anti-BJP coalition in 2019 LS polls.

What‘s more, the TMC’s claim was not just wishful pre-election rhetoric. This became clear from Ms Banerjee’s post election moves. First off the block against the ruling BJP on the demonetisation issue, she visited Delhi repeatedly, announcing a national campaign against it. Convinced that common people were seething in rage against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move, she cited the TMC’s sweeping victory in Bengal as clear evidence of mass anger against the centre.

If this was her explanation for the TMC’s success in Bengal, there came no analysis either from her or others about the setback in Tripura, the BJP’s gains there and in other states, where also the recent demonetisation was a factor.

In one sense, the BJP’s performance in Bengal, with the party increasing its share of votes from around 10 per cent in the 2016 Assembly polls to 28 per cent in Coochbehar LS and 15 per cent at Tamluk LS without much organizational effort, was equally impressive. True, the BJP failed to notch up a win, but it served a strong warning. No one really expected the TMC to lose a single seat in this round of by-elections and its winning 77 per cent share of the votes at Manteswar (Assembly) was no surprise.

The outcome was most depressing for both the CPI(M) led-Left Front and the Congress. In Coochbehar LS seat, the Forward Bloc candidate lost his deposit in the party’s former stronghold. At Tamluk LS, the LF could provide agents in only 50 per cent of the polling booths, the figure dropping to 40 per cent at Coochbehar.

The TMC’s vote share in the seats mentioned was expectedly much higher. ‘Everyone feared that it would be a no contest as far as the TMC versus the Left and/or the Congress was concerned, and so it turned out,’ said an observer.

The LF and Congress could not put up an effective campaign. There was initial confusion as to whether they should fight the TMC jointly, which was overruled by the CPI(M) central leadership. While the TMC announced its candidates and carried on a vigorous campaign, the Congress faced acute financial difficulties and almost total indifference, from their central leaders. Midway through the campaign, the Left conceded the fight in some areas, claiming that terror tactics of the TMC, backed by a complicit administration, rendered normal functioning impossible.

On polling day, the Left could put up a few agents in some booths, as against the full range of the TMC’s army of followers. The Congress fared even worse, lacking manpower. The end result revived the old question: Would it have been better for the Congress and the LF to fight the TMC in an alliance, as was done the 2016 Assembly polls ? ‘At least the margins of defeat would not have been so miserable. As it was we just went through the motions, than putting up any resistance,’ admitted a CPI leader, whose party was not contesting any seat.

Given this background, Ms Banerjee’s decision to spread her wings by trying to work up an anti-BJP campaign in states beyond Bengal cannot be faulted. Despite the acquiring the national party status, the TMC still remains very much a one-state party, a fact underscored by its defeat in Tripura. Unfortunately for her, Bengal is not a critically important state like Uttar Pradesh.

Quite apart from the enduring image problems caused by the Sarada chit fund and the Narada sting scams, Ms Banerjee is acutely aware of her government’s total dependence on the centre for its survival. Bengal’s debt to the centre now is close to Rs 3,00,000 crore.(It was around Rs 190,000 crore when the TMC took over the state’s governance from the outgoing LF). The centre’s recent decisions to send the regular wages to MNREGA workers directly to their bank accounts, involving a sum of Rs 5,000 crore, further reduced the state’s ability to mobilise significant resources at short notice.

For all the positive claims by Ms Banerjee or Finance Minister AmitMitra about the state’s ‘progress’, its ability to generate internal resources and to provide employment, have been critically impacted by the lack of fresh investments and a continuing industrial decline. The TMC handles all criticism on such issues by (a) accusing the LF of having left a near bankrupt economy and (b) the indifferent, even hostile, attitude of the Centre to respond to its needs.

But common people in Bengal seem to have accepted only the first part of the TMC’s narrative directed against the LF. From 2009 on, they have been voting against the Left parties. But as for the TMC’s diatribe against the centre, most people do not buy the state’s allegation of the so-called ‘discrimination’, which ironically was alleged by the LF ad nauseam earlier. ‘If they were anti Centre, people would not have voted for the BJP in such numbers. The stats show that the BJP is emerging as the main opposition party, rendering the LF and the Congress increasingly irrelevant,’ said one analyst.

Whether the Congress or the BJP rules the Centre, the Union Finance Ministry has neither discriminated against, nor favoured unduly, West Bengal. Whenever the TMC demands a moratorium on its debt repayment, the centre merely asks the state to produce its plans for an effective repayment scheme, while appreciating the increase of Bengal’s internal resource mobilisation by the TMC.

Mamata’s objective is long term, to try hard and get other parties in the same boat with her party, uniting them on an all-out campaign against the BJP. This would jell very well with her own pro-Minority sentiments and support base. But will other parties, each with its own special compulsions vis-à-vis the Centre, fall in line to come together to form such a coalition? Past record of anti-Centre coalitions is not exactly inspiring. But should Ms Banerjee succeed in her quest for new partners, the BJP will face a major challenge in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)