During the 2014 Lok Sabha election Modi had pledged to recover ill-gotten wealth laundered by crooked politicians and businessmen and then channel it into the bank accounts of ordinary Indians. But during last 30 months of his rule he failed to keep his promise made to the people. In May 2014, when Narendra Modi became prime minister, it was expected that he would change the narrative of Indian politics. But he failed.

With the spectre of a tough electoral battle ahead in 2019 looming large he chose the most sensitive and emotive issue; eradicating the menace of black money. On November 8, while pushing through the agenda of demonetisation Modi told his countrymen that he had to maintain secrecy about its timing as it was “mahayagna”, to purify the country of corruption, black money, fake currency and terrorism. The Indians who have been victims of these malaises quickly lapped up his pledge and believed what he said.

During last forty days no serious attempt was made to go for a “surgical operation” of his claim and find out the real intent, even though the people had to suffer due to acute cash crunch. They have got immense perseverance and patience to bear the sufferings inflicted due to this diktat. For a section of the urban middle class his decree has the virtue and it would push them into the utopian world of fulfillment and prosperity.

His failure to keep promises made during elections has made his position vulnerable notwithstanding his high pitch theatrics. Modi has come to believe that this time simple religious and nationalist slogans would not fetch votes. For catching the peoples’ imagination and get their votes something new is required. Obviously demonetisation is the best choice.

None can deny that through his demonetisation agenda he desperately tried to change the political narrative of the country. By raising the issue of demonetisation he intended to reach out to the poor and the urban middle class as well. The poor of the country nurse pathological hatred towards the rich. Naturally, his agenda would bring the poor closer to him. But the fallout of the demonetisation has made the poor scared. They would have joined the ranks of the rebels but they are scared of the saffron reprisal.

More than punishing the black money hoarders and rich, this move aims at squeezing the money out of the Opposition. The use of cash in Indian elections is an accepted fact and some of the parties are rumoured to be large users of cash. Deprived of liquid cash, the Opposition will find it tough to stand to the BJP campaign. In 2014 election no fewer than 464 political parties fielded more than 8,000 candidates. Most of these parties play proxy roles for the major political parties for mustering cash and other resources. Media close to Modi has already launched a campaign against political parties on the plea that are the patrons of the hoarders and own billions of black money.

But half way Modi changed the track: from elimination of black money to creation of a cashless society. Modi shifted the objective because while he intended to cater to his target group at the same time he tried to appease his friends. It is wrong to believe that Modi took this decision on his own. The blue print of the scheme was handed over to him by the RSS. Sangh was aware that it would turn small traders and shopkeepers, who have traditionally been a strong BJP vote bank. But it was sure that its pracharaks and karyakartas would take care of them. They will eventually rally round BJP.

He has started labelling the people and parties opposing his move as the reactionary, a word from Left. “Those who oppose my push for mobile banking are the same who say that the poor in the country do not have mobile phones. But when I talk about mobile banking, they turn around and say the poor do not have mobile phones. How much can they lie? You can see how people are being arrested with black money. I am retrieving the debt of the poor from those who exploited them. I know their power. They can buy the officers of the banks. They can do anything. But my countrymen, this fight is for the poor and honest people. Our government will win this fight. I know what the people had to face...they did it for bright future of the country. Those who are habituated to being dishonest, of doing wrong acts, the country cannot expect much them from them. This corruption, black money has exploited the poor and snatch away the rights/share of the middle class.” Little doubt he has divided the country into two parts: on one side, a handful of politicians who want to protect the dishonest, black money and the corrupt and on the other side is the and middle class.

It is irony that opposition and left has failed to make aware the poor of the real intentions of Modi. They still believe that Modi has actually unleashed the promise of acche din. It would come soon. Now, it won’t be easy to describe the BJP as a “Brahmin-bania” party. Using the agenda Modi has been trying to project himself as the champion of the subaltern people. Modi has touched a chord with the aspirational Indian.

In the entire episode role of the left has been quite questionable. The section of the daily wage workers, agricultural labourers and hands attached to the unorganised sectors were the worst hit. Workers attached to NREGA are not getting payment and work. The agencies have no cash money to pay them. Unfortunately the political parties and left forces have not hit the roads against this. It is beyond comprehension why they are tolerating this situation. Probably they still find glimmer of hope in Modi’s mission. The other plausible reason for restraining to rebel could be, these people are scared of the might of the saffron brigade.

The government has opportunistically changed the leitmotif of demonetisation from elimination of black money to creation of a cashless society. It shifted the objective because the people were getting harassed. They turned hostile as they viewed as a futile exercise. It could not unearth all the black money, as it was originally claimed. The basic reason is the prime minister and the finance minister are trying to help the market forces by pushing digital currency, which is another impractical idea being forced on an unprepared society. The non-availability of cash has also introduced elements of inevitability and even coercion into the programme.

Between 90-95 per cent of the financial transactions in the country are in the form of cash. Moving to a digital economy is almost impossible. Whatever the government is doing, to make aware the people of the cashless operation, is simply an eyewash. The challenges and difficulties are many. The banking sector is still underdeveloped. The digital infrastructure is very poor. Internet connectivity is bad, payment interface is inadequate and digital literacy is very low. With internet penetration at 30 per cent and smartphone penetration at 17 per cent, the cashless option will be available to only a small minority. When illiteracy is so high, the talk of teaching people the basics of digital deals on mobile phones is foolish and unrealistic.

The trauma and inconveniences of the cash drought are going to continue, and most people will not able to use the digital tools. It is a cruel idea being sold to the people: If you don’t have the bread of currency, eat the cashless cake. What has been most unfortunate development is Modi’s agenda has eroded the credibility of the Indian banks and the banking system, which had incidentally helped Indian economy to survive the 2008 crisis.

The finance capital is the ultimate beneficiary of the cashless banking call of Modi. The other legatee is the digital sector, which enjoys a complex but symbiotic relationship with finance capital. But everything that the Prime Minister has said and done so far suggests that there would not be a return to this old ‘normal’. What Congress leaders failed in 2014, Modi is raring to experiment with that idea: evolving a social and economic relation and understanding between the rural poor and urban middle classes. (IPA Service)