Foreign policy analysts of the Trump point out that if the new US President trough his diplomatic skills can establish rapport with Putin and Russia starts respecting its borders without posing a threat to the other European countries, the Europe and NATO have no reasons to constantly talk of security treat from Russia. That will save lot of funds for the US as the US will be able to reduce its huge commitments to NATO in the name of Russian threat. Pentagon and the Republicans establishment may not like this approach but if Trump can get implemented his approach, the global relations will take a new turn giving big impetus to the anti-EU and anti- NATO forces in Europe. At the other end, the relationship with China will be high and low but at the end, both will see that their economic relations improve at a speedier rate and this understanding will help in finding out an understanding on the major irritants like the Chinese position on South China Sea rights. As Trump observers see it, Trump has to do something initially to satisfy his US support base of white working class but ultimately, it will be w sort of working status quo since like Chinese President Xi Jinping shares the view of Trump it is economics which will determine political relationship. That way, Trump will like to have a three way understanding between US, Russia and China in 2017.


Indian policy makers- both at the level of the Government and the Corporate sector, have been assessing the possible impact of the key appointments made by the US President –elect Donald Trump till now on the basis of the feedback received from Indian sources in Washington. Donald Trump will officially take over on January 20, 2017 but his transition team is already on work and the Indian embassy officials in Washington and New York are keeping engaged with the close aides of Trump to get some idea of the India policy that is likely to emerge once Trump administration starts functioning. Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) in New Delhi is just monitoring the developments but sources say that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confident that Trump will be good for India in dealing with Pakistan and China and also in stepping up business relations further. The PMO view is that Trump is basically a businessman and he has strong common sense in terms of business operations. He will certainly take into account the significance of expansion in India-US relationship in view of the huge market potential in India.PMO sources say that PM Modi is sure to establish a personal rapport with Trump and that will be helpful in sorting out some of the irritants including the issue of HIB visas for Indian software engineers and the operations of the Indian IT companies in USA.

Trump has appointed Rex Tillerson, CEO of the oil giant ExxonMobil as the Secretary of State. Mr. Tillerson is known to be a friend of Russian President Putin and h e has been a firm critic of US sanctions against Russia on Ukraine. Indian foreign policy analysts feel that this appointment signals that Trump wants to normalize relations with Russia and he might review the issue of sanctions on the lines Tillerson has been saying. Indian view is that Trump will get elbow room in dealing firmly with China right now by improving relations with Russia. In fact, Trump wants that Improved US-Russia relations should lead President Putin also to be more independent of China in the coming days and Trump also is looking for loosening of ties between Russia and China in the coming days to the benefit of USA. In fact, a section of the foreign ministry in India believes that Trump might be quite unconventional in his foreign policy and he can recommend phased withdrawal of US support from NATO. The new secretary of state does not highly rate the NATO-US relationship and he is of the view that Europe should fend for itself. That way things are very uncertain for international situation and it will not be a conventional US foreign policy as pursued in the last two decades.

As regards impact on India, the foreign ministry is looking at the prospect of Trump taking a stronger position against the Islamic terrorists and in the process recommending harder measures against Pakistan. Indian Govt will also make use of the close relationship between Trump and the Hindu Republicans to persuade Trump to take a more pro-India policy vis a vis Pakistan. But since both Trump and Tillerson are business people, Indian policy makers feel that the Indian market with its exponential growth and immense opportunities for American companies can act as a big attraction for the new US establishment and that may be projected by India as a carrot to new US govt for bringing them closer to India as against Pakistan. India is however worried about Trump’s future policy on Afghanistan. India has to be involved in the settlement following post US withdrawal Afghanistan since India has a big stake in the future shape of govt in Afghanistan. Trump’s position is not yet clear on this issue.

Donald Trump has appointed James Mattis, a former general who has served in Iraq and Afghanistan as the Secretary of Defence. Mattis has been a severe critic of Obama’s policy on Middle East and he wants to intensify fight against the jehadis. Here the issue for the Indian foreign ministry is that Pakistan, may not be liked by India but Pakistan is in the battle against jehadis and Pakistan has borne the brunt of the talibans and the other jehadis. Can Pakistan acquire a more important position in the scheme of Mattis in West Asia. Also the issue is whether Trump with his improved ties with Putin can help in building a more cohesive front against ISIS and that will completely change the scenario in Iraq and Syria and also the relationship between US and its European allies. That way, things are in a flux and the Indian government is watching the developments

For Indian policymakers- two issues are very important-attitude of the new Trump administration on China and Pakistan. Narendra Modi Government is happy in dealing with China on its own and the relations in trade and investment have vastly improved. President Obama took a tough stand on China on South China Sea issue this year but overall, China did not yield any ground to USA in global politics. In fact China gained ground in the Asian geopolitics. Trump’s newly appointed Ambassador Terry Branstad is known as pro-China. So that way though Trump is talking tough about China in public, his main man to deal with China is a person who is liked by the Chinese leadership. Branstad knows Chinese President well and the Indian foreign policy makers believe that Trump after taking over, will change his tone and facilitate further business relations with China. In the initial period, he might be taking a tough stand but with the passing of time, his views will be diluted and Branstad will act as a facilitator for establishing rapport between Trump and Xi Jinping. Trump will certainly bargain hard with China both on trade and political issues but both Governments know that their stable relationship benefits both economies and any sudden downslide at this stage will be adversely affecting both. That way, despite irritants, US-China relationship may not turn confrontationist, though the differences will remain.

Come January 20. The entire world including India will watch with deep interest what president Trump Finally starts implementing. (IPA Service)