There is no sign of the feud within Samajwadi Party’s first family being settled, as Mulayam Singh is adamant on keeping control over the party despite the majority of its cadres appearing to side with chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. Despite several rounds of meetings, the father and son have been unable to patch up their differences. The election promise of the Congress – except a fringe players in UP—aligning with SP and consolidating minority votes, is neutralized if SP is split down the middle.

BSP is betting on its own formula of social engineering . This was reflected in ticket distribution where BSP has fielded 97 Muslim candidates as compared to 87 dalit candidates. Mayawati is also betting that Dalits have bitter memories of the Rohit Vemula suicide case where BJP leaders were blamed precipitating the crisis as well as the publicly flogging of Dalits in BJP –governed Gujarat over allegedly skinning a cow. But number of her followers have switched to BJP, perhaps sensing which way political winds are blowing.

In the last Lok Sabha election, BJP romped home by winning 71 out of 80 seats in UP. It was helped then by oratorical and crowd pulling power of Narendra Modi. That fire power will be working for BJP again, as Modi will now be campaigning as PM. At the moment , Modi is projecting demonetisation as a war on corruption where he is crusading on behalf of the poor. This is double-edged sword which could either prevail over caste calculations or take the sheen off Modi’s aura of invincibility .

The first phase of UP assembly election is now exactly a month away . it will be most significant election since Narendra Modi’ sweep to power in 2014—one that will serve as an indication of how strong the prime minister might be as he makes his 2019 bid .it will also be the election that could see one among chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and BSP President Mayawati being either propelled into a higher orbit or entering a phase of eclipse, even if temporary. And it will be the election that could redeem Rahul Gandhi or deliver the final damning verdict on his political effectiveness.

But the BJP has neither a chief ministerial face nor a list of candidates yet, the SP continues to go through bewildering convulsions that has split the cadres and produced two parallel lists of nominees , and the both the Congress and BSP have been hamstrung by defections of major leaders. UP is in flux, and political picture is more complex that what it has a reputation for producing.

Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah had expected the fight to boil down to BJP vs SP but the acrimony within the state’s ruling party has thrown up the prospect of a BJP-BSP showdown . The BJP continues to bask in the glory of its 71 Lok Sabha seats which translates into 337 assembly seats. The BJP finds itself with perhaps 20 options in each of the 403 constituencies, a position it has never been before the start of campaign. Swami Prasad Maurya, once a pillar of the BSP and its leader in the assembly is now in the BJP. So is Dalbir Singh, who was leader in house for Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal. Six MLAs of the Congress, three of the SP and 13 of the BSP are now in the BJP. The Congress was humiliated by its state President Raita Bahuguna who joined the BJP in October 2016.

The BJP’s caste strategy for 2017 does not differ significantly from 2014 Lok Sabha poll other than factoring in effects the division in SP. (IPA Service)