A report by the International Labour Organisation has projected the number of unemployed people in India is expected to rise in 2017 as also in 2018.The ILO has predicted that the number of jobless in India will increase from 17.7 million in 2016 to 18 million in 2018 even though the country’s unemployment rate is expected to go down from 3.5 per cent to 3.4 per cent in 2017.

Globally, the ILO reckons that the number of jobless people will increase by 3.4 million in 2017, in its report on World Employment and Social Outlook for 2017 released late Thursday, with projections based on econometric modelling carried out in November 2016. The global unemployment rate is expected to rise modestly from 5.7 to 5.8 per cent in 2017 as the pace of labour force growth outstrips job creation.

Economic growth continues to disappoint and underperform – both in terms of levels and the degree of inclusion. This paints a worrisome picture for the global economy and its ability to generate enough jobs, let alone quality jobs.

Vulnerable forms of employment, which include contributing family workers and own account workers, are expected to stay above 42 per cent of total employment. About 1.4 billion people are likely to be engaged in such employment in 2017, with the number rising by 11 million per year, with Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa being the most affected.

“In fact, almost one in two workers in emerging countries are in vulnerable forms of employment, rising to more than four in five workers in developing countries,” said Steven Tobin, ILO senior economist and lead author of the report. The report has clubbed India in the category of emerging nations.

The number of workers earning less than $3.10 per day is even expected to increase by more than 5 million over the next two years in developing countries. Global uncertainty and the lack of decent jobs are, among other factors, underpinning social unrest and migration in many parts of the world.

“A co-ordinated effort to provide fiscal stimulus and an increase in public investment that takes into account each country’s fiscal space, would provide an immediate jump-start to the global economy and reduce global unemployment in 2018 by close to 2 million compared to our baseline forecasts,” the ILO said.

Asia Pacific region, with nearly 60 per cent of the global workforce, saw net employment rise by over 20 million (or 1.1 per cent) in 2016, and a similar expansion is anticipated in 2017. “Southern Asia has created most of the new employment, with employment expanding by 13.4 million in 2016, underpinned by population-driven labour force growth.

Entering 2017, working poverty is projected to continue to decline in Asia-Pacific, in both rate and absolute numbers, while vulnerable employment numbers look set to rise, despite decreases in the vulnerable employment rate, largely as a result of population growth.

As regards India, the latest disruption in the economic activities, especially in the rural areas, has adversely impacted the growth process. In 2016-17, the GDP growth rate was earlier estimated at the level of more than 7.5 per cent. Before demonetisation, the mood in the government and the industry was so high that the Finance Minister was talking of even reaching a growth rate nearing eight per cent. Prime Minister’s sudden unilateral decision has given a big jolt to that confidence and the RBI has already downgraded the growth forecast to the level of7.1 per cent. Economists mention that the impact of the demonetisation on the rural sector will last for more months and the Prime Minister’s programme of building with big speed a Cashless India, will also hit for the time being the employment in rural areas.

There is another apprehension which is expected to hit hard the Indian job market in 2017 affecting mostly the skilled personnel in the information technology sector. Mr. Donald Trump will take over as US President on January 20 and his team has already announced restrictions on the outsourcing by the US companies and curbs on H1B visas. This will have big impact on the Indian companies operating in India on the basis of orders from the US companies as also the Indian IT professionals working in USA. The exact position will be known when the US govt officially announces this measure, but whatever be the extent, it will lead to more joblessness among the Indian youth. The Indian IT sector will be in a major crisis and the industry will have to find out alternative sources for jobs. That way, 2017 is very crucial for Indian economy from job generation perspective. (IPA Service).