The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a relatively weaker force in the Bengal opposition, as it takes on the well entrenched Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the coming Panchayat polls. Despite all its recent losses and the continuing erosion in terms of both mass support as well as organisational strength, the Left Front(LF) still remains the strongest opposition entity. It enjoys a steady vote share of around 21-24%. The Congress, its vote share fluctuating between 6 to 10% of the aggregate in recent elections, has been reduced to an also-ran party. Unless it fights in an alliance with the LF, its prospects are not encouraging.

With apologies to the resurgent BJP and its supporters, the Bengal Panchayat elections would be primarily a test of strength between it and the CPI(M)-led Front. As things stand, neither formation has much of a chance of defeating the ruling TMC.

As an administrator Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has succeeded in activating Bengal’s rural administrative machinery and making it more functional than before. Newsmen covering her periodic, elaborate district meetings with grassroot level officials agree that such exercises were unknown in the past.

Says a senior Nabanna-based official of the land revenue department, ’District officials spend sleepless nights preparing themselves for the CM’s meetings these days. No one knows what the CM will ask and of whom, but God help those who fumble in their answers. From senior officials to the BDOs, no one escaped the rough edge of her tongue when they faltered.’

This type of accountability-based administrative functioning was never seen in rural Bengal earlier. The results are palpable. From rural electrification to water supply, health facilities to schools, village roads to women empowerment, the quality of life in Bengal villages has certainly improved. There are far more scholarships than before for poor students, who now enjoy midday meals and have free cycles! These, in addition to the supply of rice at a subsidised Rs 2 a kilo for those who need it most.

And at her recent administrative meeting in Malda, Ms Banerjee promised to distribute free chickens and livestock to people, to increase the production of eggs and improve existing poultry production levels.

With nearly 200 out of 294 Bengal Assembly seats being rural or semi-urban in character, it is easy to see why the TMC has been winning elections comfortably, whether in the Panchayats, the Assembly or the Lok Sabha. Despite the sickening revelations of the massive Sarada chit fund scam or the Narada sting operations, the rural electorate seems to be firmly aligned with the TMC. A large chunk of the party’s present 44% vote share comes from the villages.

The phenomenon of corruption seems to impact the urban and more literate sections of the electorate in Bengal, if recent poll results are any indication. Neither the LF nor the BJP will find it easy to oust the TMC from its rural bastions, but for major unforeseen eventualities.

For the BJP it will be a problem of finding adequate manpower to ensure that it can establish a presence in all the polling booths. For once TMC‘s roly-poly leader Partha Chatterjee’s gibe, ‘Does the state BJP realise it will have to field and mobilise at least 80,000 men for the panchayat polls ?” makes sense.

The BJP”s frantic membership drive post 2014 LS polls in Bengal hit a roadblock within weeks. The post LS euphoria vanished quickly , as was reflected in dwindling electoral support for the BJP---- its long, sad familiar story in the state.

However, post UP and Goa Assembly elections, the party is once more on a roll .in fact, recovery began earlier, as the party secured second place finishes in both Tamluk and Coochbehar LS by elections and at the recently held Contai(S) assembly seat election. In some cases, both the Congress and the LF not only came distant third or fourth, but their candidates lost their security deposits!

‘Therefore , even if the BJP loses the panchayat polls to the TMC but emerges as its major challenger well ahead of the LF and the Congress, it will have won a major victory and pose a harder challenge to the TMC in the 2019 LS polls,’ says one analyst. Considering that the BJP calls the Bengal panchayat polls a ‘quarter finals’ contest , and the Lok Sabha polls as ‘semi finals’, it has nothing to lose as it faces up to the TMC.

It is not as though the TMC, entrenched as it is, is sitting pretty. There will certainly be a major impact in the party’s fortunes once the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate(ED) begin to wrap up the cases pending against over 30 senior TMC MPs, Ministers, MLAs and organisational leaders in the Sarada and Narada scams. The party has suffered considerable face over the arrest of its leaders earlier. Its Lok Sabha leader Sudip Bandopadhyay is currently in jail for his involvement with the Rose valley chit fund scam.

However, experts say, people were not really bothered about such acts of corruption during the past round of polls , whether for the Assembly or the Lok Sabha. But that should not bring much comfort to the TMC. Says Samir Putatunda former CPI(M) ideologue who now heads a small left party,’ For years the Congress too did not lose elections despite exposures of its corrupt leaders. But in 1967, the cumulative impact of its misdeeds cost the Congress dearly and all over India too, in electoral terms. The party has never recovered its lost glory after that, except briefly in 1984. Corruption and anti-people policies always cost political parties heavily and the TMC is no exception. Because it won earlier elections is no guarantee that it will not lose a major share of popular votes in this round of elections because of its corruption.’
(IPA Service)