No wonder disruptive forces are on ascent in America, not without some connivance, in Trumpian presidency, the commander-in-chief already litting fires around the world with his reckless tweets. Strangely, a voice of moderation for Donald Trump from an unexpected quarter, Communist China’s President Xi Jinping (who has his own game of ‘stooping to conquer’). The latter stands for globalization and free trade!

All this need not detain us as Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands ready with accoutrement on the ramparts of Red Fort, to launch the NEW INDIA with a plethora of SANKALPS. As early as 2022, we are to usher in “a clean, poverty-free and corruption-free India”. Sankalp does not mean free travel but our pledges to end terrorism and casteism, and to see a “communalism-free India”.

Prime Minister Modi is already at the wheel driving us to “one nation, one tax, one law and, presumably one language”. And cleverly, he has packaged his ideas for a glorious return to the high table in 2019.

He is at the peak of power, with no challenge whatsoever in the foreseeable future, and yet the ruling party has an insatiable thirst for power, and more power, at whatever needs to be done, fair or foul. To make it easier for him, rival factions of ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu have outstretched hands to accommodate Mr Modi’s wishes.

Amma Jaya is no more, after her spectacular catch of all but two out of 39 seats in Lok Sabha in 2014. The BJP in Tamil Nadu, out of nowhere, now talks of Lotus blooming all over the state, with the prospective Modi wave in 2019. There are other poll-bound states in 2018/19 and BJP chieftain Amit Shah has strategic plans.

The Prime Minister has always talked of clubbing together Lok Sabha and states for a single electoral operation. Who knows? He has prided himself on his launching “boldest reforms”. Objectively, the boldest move was his demonetization of November 8, 2016, the costs of which we are paying and still counting. His equal claim on GST is patently absurd, its decade-old saga and BJP’s negative role while in opposition cannot be whitewashed.

The way Mr Modi and Mr Shah put all their focus on conquering rest of India, in the run-up to 2019, underlines the primacy of politics and demagogue. Economics remains divorced even after three years with no significant job-yielding growth or the promised transformations.

Yes, a large number of initiatives had been taken to ease doing business and besides jan dhan, a slew of other programmes, such as Swatch Bharat, Make in India, Skills Training had been launched with great fanfare. But we have had few accounts of how far these programmes had penetrated into the countryside and produced visible results.

It is, therefore, a certain degree of skepticism creeps in to hear Prime Minister making more promises, even if his ability to deliver outcomes is unquestionable. At the same time, even if it is not any the easier for him with all authority at his command to take up structural reforms at present, he is buying more time for such bolder steps.

Be that as it may, the Prime Minister cannot let the stagnation in growth and investment outlook continue, especially with clearly negative trends impinging on macro-economic stability. These have been highlighted not only in the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC)statement of Aug.2 but more exhaustively analysed in the mid-year Economic Survey presented to Parliament on August 11.

Industrial performance remains dismal in the first quarter of current fiscal. MPC has stressed the need to reinvigorate private investment, remove infrastructure bottlenecks and provide a major thrust to the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana for housing needs of all. Reserve Bank’s industrial outlook survey (IOS) revealed a waning of optimism in Q2 about demand conditions across parameters, and especially on capacity utilisation, profit margins and employment, according to MPC

The mid-year economic survey sees deflationay impulses taking hold of the economy. There has been a weakening of demand and despite good monsoon and launch of GST with a multitude of rates and other complexities, growth outlook has dimmed in relation to the assessment at the start of fiscal year. There is added warning that Implementation of farm loan waivers by States may result in possible fiscal slippages and undermine the quality of public spending, entailing inflationary spillovers.

Whatever the medium-term outlook with expectation of macro-economic stability with low inflation and favourable external balance getting entrenched, demonetization’s short-term costs in terms of loss of jobs in small sectors and low demand have taken a toll on the economy for the second consecutive fiscal year. Currently, growth is pegged at 7.2 per cent with possibility of another downgrade.

It ia a sober reminder that even after 70 years of independence, India’s basic ills continue to haunt policy-makers – whether poverty, hunger in countryside, child malnutrition and status of rural women.

Prime Minister Modi’s innovative NITI Aayog has fallen behind in the transformative strategies entrusted to it so much so that less is heard on Make in India and other like programmes, and surprisingly even the Deputy Chairman Prof. Arvind Panagaria has opted to return to academia by the end of August. (IPA Service)