Nitish’s action was on expected lines, though it was an action taken in haste. Until that time, Sharad had not spoken against Nitish. Nevertheless, the action came with Sharad kick-starting his three-day Jan Samvad Yatra in Bihar. Under the programme Sharad would meet the party cadres, leaders and common people of Bihar to discuss the repercussions of the disbanding of the grand alliance in the state. Like every politician he was on a mission to assess his acceptability among the rank and file than opening a front against Nitish.

But for Nitish this heralded the open rebellion against his leadership. Sharad had dared to go against his directives not to open his mouth on the soil of Bihar. As if this was not enough, a whispering campaign was launched by some prominent JD(U) leaders that he bargained RJD supremo’s support for his son. It is said RJD insiders had indicated that Lalu had ‘agreed’ to field Sharad’s son Shantanu Bundela, a post graduate from London University, from Bihar as a logical inference to the veteran’s ‘rebellion’ against Nitish Kumar.

Sharad is not a mass leader. But he has his appeal amongst the rich and prosperous Yadavs of Kosi belt, which is predominantly a Yadav bastion. The Madhepura seat was won by Sharad four times between 1991 and 2009, whereas Lalu, who broke away from the original Janata Dal, to form the RJD in July 1997, won the seat in 2004. In 2014, RJD’s Pappu Yadav won it, defeating Sharad, who had contested on JD(U) ticket. Little doubt, coming together of Lalu and Sharad will eventually further strengthen Lalu’s grip on the Yadavs of the state.

The Yadav caste has three prominent sub castes; Krishnaut, Majhraut and Ganderia. Lalu Yadav is undoubtedly the leader of the Yadavs, but the rich and prosperous particularly belonging to the Krishnaut and Majhraut maintain their independent stand. They are closer to the upper castes. Politically too, they are inclined towards BJP and the Congress. Still some of the senior Congress leaders belong to this region. It is significant the Yadavs of the region have accepted Sharad as their leader. This is the reason that Lalu wants to project Sharad as the leader of the Mahagathbandhan. This will at least not allow the upper Yadav votes to drift. This will also foil Nitish’s design to project himself as the leader of the backwards.

After Sharad Yadav’s removal, the war cry is at the peak. Making a tactical shift, Sharad is now on a mission to mobilise public support against JD(U) national president and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to break away from the grand alliance and form a government with BJP. He told a rally at Hajipur; "I was one of those who asked the people of Bihar to vote for the grand alliance. I consider this as a responsibility. The people are hurt with this withdrawal." Earlier he had said; “I am going to meet the people and will discuss the condition of the state after the withdrawal of the grand alliance. I have not done any preparation for this. I will stay there overnight and will talk to people on this issue". It clearly implied he was not in the mood to lead the crusade against Nitish, no doubt he had expressed his disagreement with Nitish’s decision to discard the grand alliance government and form a new one with the BJP.

Meanwhile, JD(U) also suspended another rebel Rajya Sabha MP, Ali Anwar, who had also criticised Nitish Kumar's decision to form an alliance with the BJP. The action against Ali Anwar was taken after he attended a meeting of Opposition parties called by Congress president Sonia Gandhi in New Delhi. Power is the biggest attraction and no politician would ever prefer to be seen on the opposite side, especially when one does not stand to gain by opposing. But behind the façade of supporting Nitish, the fact remains that the JD(U) is a completely divided house. Most of the leaders and legislators hold the view that it would be a tough proposition to retain their seats. They nurture the notion that 2019 Lok Sabha would be crucial for Nitish’s survival.

Though the aides and colleagues of Nitish claim that mahadalits are with him. this is a misnomer. In the last assembly election of 2015, even in an absolutely polarised contest the communists, especially the CPI(ML)–Liberation had managed to win three seats. These seats were held by other parties. Obviously it is indicative of the fact that they are not with the JD(U) of Nitish. Even in the 2019 elections some sort of major electoral changes may take place. Already some senior leaders of the RJD are toying with the idea of having some sort of understanding with the Left.

The August 27 rally of the RJD will define the contours of new politics in Bihar. The state is likely to witness pushing of the “corruption versus secularism" issue in a strong manner. So far the BJP leaders have been accusing the secular leaders of being corrupt. But for the first time a serious move will be made to identify the corrupt BJP leaders. After all, a politician is a politician irrespective of which party he belongs. It is not that all secular leaders are corrupt and all the Hindutva and Sangh leaders are pious and clean. Already some reports of corruption against Venkaiah Naidu have been carried by some papers.

Bajrang Dal’s thrashing of three Muslims in Bhojpur has only turned the Muslims suspicious of the intentions and motives of Nitish. They claim that Bihar has been comparatively peaceful, but now with NDA government in power, peace has been disturbed. Even while mobs killed Muslims in other places, no such incident had taken place in Bihar. They have started suspecting the “zero tolerance” claim of Nitish. (IPA Service)