The answer to the question would seem to be yes. The reason is simple: The formula will follow the same path adopted in the past: sharing of the organizational posts between Chandy’s A group and Chennithala’s I group.

That is exactly the reason why Chandy has given up his insistence on election to decide the new KPCC president. The A group’s calculations are simple: Ramesh Chennithala is the leader of the Opposition. Therefore, the new KPCC chief has to be a leader belonging to the Oommen Chandy group. And that eminently suits Chandy’s game-plan for capturing the organization.

It is true that Chandy has ruled out his acceptance of party posts on the ground that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) lost the last assembly elections under his leadership. Therefore, he would not accept any party post. But that does not prevent him from ensuring that a loyalist of his becomes the new KPCC chief. And that is exactly the plan of action Chandy is firm on actualizing. Once an A group leader becomes the KPCC president, he can call the shots, especially on deciding the candidates for the next assembly elections. By making sure that majority of his followers secure tickets, he can dictate terms on who should become the chief minister should the Congress-led UDF win the next assembly polls.

The rival I group would seem to have given its nod for the informal agreement on sharing of organizational offices. Their reasoning: In any case, if the UDF wins the next assembly elections, Ramesh would be the automatic choice for the chief minister’s post by virtue of his being the present leader of the Opposition.

But the Chennithala faction seems to have fallen into the ‘trap’ set by the Chandy group. In any case, the term ‘consensus election’ is a misnomer. How can there be a consensus if there has to be an election? Likewise, if an election has to be held, how can there be a consensus?

In other words, the Chennithala group has no option but to agree on a Chandy loyalist becoming the new KPCC president. And if that becomes a reality, there can be no guarantee that Chennithala would automatically become the CM. The Chandy group would pull out all the stops to see that the new Congress Legislature is packed with his loyalists forcing a contest at that point of time.

But the million dollar question is: Will the Congress High Command oblige Chandy? If past record is any guide, it is unlikely to play ball. That Chandy has fallen out of favour with the High Command is an open secret. That being the reality, in the normal course Chandy has no chance of heading the next UDF Government.

The only way Chandy can force the High Command’s hands is by capturing the organization. Since it has become clear his candidate would become the new KPCC chief, Chandy has ‘graciously’ accepted the ‘consensus election’ formula.

Also, if the Congress-led UDF loses the assembly election, then again, Chandy can become the new leader of the Opposition if he secures majority in the newly-elected CLP. And he is confident of winning a majority of seats because his group is stronger than the Chennithala faction. Either way, Chandy would be in a win-win situation. And he will be back on the centre-stage in State politics. (IPA Service)