The Congress may be able to congratulate itself on putting up a good fight, but it knows that the party is back to where it has been in Gujarat for the last 20 years, with power still out of its grasp and with no local leader capable of strengthening the organization at the ground level.

The BJP, on the other hand, will heave a sigh of relief at the fact that it will be able to form a government after all because it cannot deny that it had the fright of its life. For the party, the scare came out of the blue with Rahul Gandhi’s sudden and unexpected emergence as a serious challenger.

It forced the prime minister to fall back on his old trick of equating Gujarat with himself as he did with considerable success during the 2002 riots. He lashed out, therefore, first at the Congress maverick, Mani Shankar Aiyar, with the outlandish charge of having organized a “supari” operation to eliminate the prime minister, and then with an equally preposterous allegation against Manmohan Singh for conspiring with Pakistan.

If anything, these absurd allegations, which the BJP leader, Shatrughan Sinha, described as “unbelievable”, served to emphasize how nervous the BJP was. The comparisons that were made between Rahul Gandhi and Aurangzeb by none other than Modi himself were another instance of the BJP’s panicky state of mind. It must have awaited the results, therefore, with much more trepidations than the Congress. In the end, the BJP must have thanked its lucky stars for having escaped with its honour intact, though barely.

Even then, it should be obvious for the BJP that the Modi magic is fading, as a Shiv Sena spokesman said some time ago. If the BJP is hard put to hold on to what was touted as its bastion as well as a Hindutva laboratory, then it is clear that the going will be much tougher for it in the three BJP-ruled states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which will go to the polls next year. It is unlikely that the Modi-Amit Shah duo will be able to stave off the anti-incumbency factor in the three states as they did in Gujarat.

The Congress, on the other hand, will realize that its spell in the political wilderness is over. If it almost succeeded in bearding the lion in its own den, then the Grand Old Party (GOP) will have a much better chance elsewhere if only because Gujarat cannot but have dented the BJP’s confidence.

It is not known whether this will make the BJP more aggressive in the matter of making “unbelievable” accusations or mellow it down, but there is bound to be some changes in its campaigning tactics. At any rate, it is unlikely that the party will continue to boast of ushering in a Congress-mukt (free) India any longer. Nor will its myriad trolls persist in describing the BJP’s ascent as marking the end of 1,200 years of slavery - 1,000 years under Muslims and 200 years under the British. (IPA Service)


On the Congress’s part, it will have to come to terms with the fact that the party cannot rely on untested newcomers like Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani to make any headway. True, Gujarat is a special case for the GOP in this respect because it does not have any leader of note at the local level and has neglected to build one up all these years.

It had no option, therefore, but to rope in the three musketeers who appeared from among the Patidars, the backward castes and the Dalits because of the disenchantment among these communities with the BJP’s rule in the state. But for them and for Rahul Gandhi’s success in taking them along, the Congress would have been in deep trouble. This isn’t the case in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where the Congress does have influential local leaders. It can look forward, therefore, with a great deal of hope to the elections in the three states.

It may be an exaggeration to say that the tide is turning in the Indian political waters. But the signs of an ebb are visible. At least, the Modi wave cannot be said to be advancing since the Himachal Pradesh outcome can be seen as a manifestation of the anti-incumbency factor.

It isn’t only dissatisfaction with demonetization and the GST, which is responsible for the BJP’s declining fortune in Gujarat, but also the rampages of the saffron fundamentalists who have been assaulting and killing all those whom they abhor, especially the Muslims. They have generally been more active in Rajasthan, but Gujarat has also felt the heat. (IPA Service)