One way out would have been to propose the formation of a second states reorganisation commission. Since this idea has occasionally been mentioned, most recently by Dr Karan Singh, it would have sounded credible even if the government was suspected to be not too serious about it.

The suggestion of a new commission is a time-honoured trick to deflect attention from a burgeoning demand. If the Congress chose instead to straightaway accept the Telengana Rashtra Samiti's demand, the reason perhaps was that it panicked over Rao's suicidal course and rushed into a messy situation without considering all the pros and cons.

The move was uncharacteristic of a party which tends to err on the side of caution, as Narasimha Rao's reluctance to save the Babri masjid showed. Yet, if ever was circumspection needed to buy time, the Telangana demand was the ideal one, not least because a concession was bound to have a highly fissiparous chain reaction.

This is exactly what has happened to show up the Congress leadership in very poor light, especially because its handling of the demand has been a ham-handed one for a long time. The fact that the demand for separation has been hanging fire from the time of the first states reorganisation commission half a century ago, the party should have been able to formulate clear-cut response by now.

The issue has been complicated by the approval given to the separation by the reorganisation commission of 1955, thereby conferring a legitimacy on the demand which is not shared by other claims for the division of states. Telangana in this respect stands in a category of its own. Its violent past because of communist insurrections should have also been kept in mind.

If any party could have handled the issue with some dexterity, it was the Congress because of its long experience in governance - and filibustering. It bungling, therefore, is all the more surprising. Perhaps it was so disoriented by Y.S. Rajashekhara Reddy's untimely death that it was unable to prepare a game plan.

YSR himself had mishandled the situation since he had first approved of the demand and then backtracked. However, if he had been around, he might have been able to tackle the crisis with greater efficiency, which was obviously beyond the capacity of his successor, K.L. Rosaiah.

Since the latter was known to be without YSR's charisma and competence, it was the responsibility of the Congress's central leadership to deal with the situation with greater care. A wider level of consultation was necessary before jumping to a conclusion. A greater involvement of the level-headed Pranab Mukherjee was the order of the day. Instead, it was the Union Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, who took the initiative in announcing the acceptance of the demand

What a more detailed analysis of the issue would have brought to the fore was the inevitability of similar demands being made by others. Now that a Pandora's box has been opened, it will take statesmanship of the highest order to restore calm. Even now, the announcement of a second states reorganisation commission may be helpful although whether the TRS will accept the Telangana demand being referred to it is open to question. For the Telangana activists, it would seem as if the centre was trying to put the genii back in the bottle.

Among the various demands which are currently being aired, the one for Gorkhaland has more potential for creating trouble than the others because its proponents are better organised. Of the others, Ajit Singh may be able to drum up some support for a Harit Pradesh being carved out of U.P., but it will take time for the other demands, such as those for a Vidarbha or a Bodoland, to pick up steam.

Although Mayawati has suddenly become insistent on a Poorvanchal presumably because of the belief that the BSP will be able to rule more than one state if U.P. is trifurcated, she may have second thoughts if she realises that she cannot be the chief minister of all of them. It is doubtful, however, whether she will be able to tolerate other chief ministers from her party, who will be her equal, at least theoretically. But what her preference for the division of U.P. shows is that she is no longer as confident as she was when the BSP won a majority on its own in U.P.

There is little doubt that the latest turbulence will test Sonia Gandhi's mettle as never before. Till now, she has had a relatively trouble-free run, leading the Congress to victory in two successive general elections because of the BJP's decline. On the nuclear deal, too, she yielded to Manmohan Singh's (and Rahul Gandhi's) judgment just in time to win the support of the middle classes.

But it will take exceptional capability to ride out the present stormy weather when minor figures like Chandrashekhara Rao and Bimal Gurung are gaining prominence by exploiting parochial prejudices. (IPA Service)