He had concluded, and rightly so, that attending to immediate needs of Indians was more important than harping on the past glory. Construction of toilets before the temple was set as a priority and essential part of the economic dream he promised to deliver. He indicated he would not deliver charity. Instead he would empower people. People accepted as the unconventional approach appealed to them. The consistent campaign against him painting his communalist was overlooked to give him a clear mandate.
Looking back his cardinal mistake was in assumption that the Sangh Parivar that agreed to his terms for the campaign would allow him to go full speed on his declared drive. Probably he mistook the silence into tacit approval to his concept of economic progress regardless of its consequences to the basic philosophy of the Sangh Parivar that was consistent in its objective of the Hindu Raj. Narendra Modi had more confidence in his ability though he had seen from close quarters the Sangh domination over the Vajpayee regime. First jot delivered was defeat of his concept of governance in the Delhi assembly elections and later in the Bihar elections also.
Even a closer reading of his unconventional ideas and his nontraditional ways of working for first eighteen months reflected his desire to deliver what he had promised. But after the second jolt he seems to have withdrawn within. Not only tone but also content of his public utterances underwent a change. He did not change his basic concepts but also was not ready for public confrontation. In first two years, the BJP had won back four seats out of five for which bye-elections were held. Mainpuri alone was retained by the Samajwadi Party. In subsequent 18 bye-elections, the BJP could not get even a single one.
Wins in the state elections in the last four years bred a false sense of confidence in the BJP that it had arrived to stay at the top in the national politics. It was able to win small states only except Uttar Pradesh. It was not able to achieve inroads in the coastal states with a strong regional party dominating. It was clear, despite the unprecedented numbers in UP assembly polls, the party would not be able to repeat its performance in UP and Bihar as well as, in eight states with 117seats. Of 237 seats, the BJP had bagged 215 seats. It needs to make inroads in 205 seats in the coastal states to make up for its potential loss in other states where it had swept in the last elections.
It cannot be said that the Prime Minister had not visualized his weakness in game of numbers. And yet he not only slowed down but had also changed his track. Every measure by the government since the Bihar election was conducive to not only slow down growth process but also liable to increasing unemployment. It is questionable whether or not the Prime Minister was hitting at the middle class that remains the main locomotive for rapid development in any economy. His economic measures like demonetisation, imposition of new tax structure, cancellation of large number of licenses on pretext of fighting corruption had a direct adverse impact to the interests of the middle class. It is hard to believe that the authorities did not take in account as to who would be directly and adversely affected by the initiated measures.
He may have genuinely believed that rapid economic growth was the only effective way to improve life and for reduction of incidence of poverty as economic growth may lead to empowerment of larger population. But no thought was apparently given to the logic that would emanate from it to alarm the forces that were keen on ensuring retention of influence of religion. The economic growth can be achieved when men are free to depend on manmade mechanism and less dependent on nature through industrialisation. He may have been lulled into false sense of confidence that since there was no protest against his priorities of toilet before temple, he would have a free hand. He was grossly mistaken in his belief and yet could not protest when his move to amend the land acquisition regulations met with stiff opposition from within. He could no more bypass the opposition through acquiring authority through ordinance.
He could impose his terms for the party agenda for the last election. It may have lulled him in belief that he would be able to drive his locomotive at his intended speed. He went around the globe to induce foreign capital. He even threw open several sectors for direct investments but apparent resistance he encountered from within did not tempt foreign capital to reach Indian shores. Much of his planning had depended on more manufacturing units coming to India to generate more employment. What followed appears to be desperation. His dream was for non-conventional route to reach the new destination. The resistance from within converted it into merely a mirage. It is reflected in results of bye-polls though bye-polls do not reflect the trends that play pivotal role in general poll. But he seems to have run into impenetrable wall. He has run out of his options. Entire economy runs on trust. That is the capital missing now.
INDIA
MODI’S DILEMMA: CAN NEITHER GO AHEAD NOR RETURN, OPTIONS LIMITED
Vijay Sanghvi - 2018-03-19 17:27
The loss of two Lok Sabha seats by the Bharatiya Janata Party in bye-elections from Uttar Pradesh is not a flash in a pan. The party has lost six seats out of ten it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections while it was not able to wrest even a single out of 13 others for which bye-polls were held since 2014. The decline is steadily as it has not been able to wrest even a single from other parties. Even in state elections it was not able to make a dent in states under the regional parties. The outcomes pose a serious question as to what constituted political mind of the Indian voter in 2014 to give a clear mandate to Narendra Modi who had relegated his party to background and sought the vote for himself. His election campaign and publicity material had left no one in dark that he was seeking mandate to form his rule. His posters had loudly pronounced ‘this time, Modi government (Ab Ki Bar, Modi Sarkar). When a section pointed out this aberration, posters were replaced for a week to bring back the posters that had sought vote for formation of his government.