Although the latest assurance from Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee that there will be no Gorkha state at Darjeeling may sound comforting, the general feeling in business and trade circles is that the government is not doing enough to tame GJM hooligans to restore the rule of law at the otherwise sleepy environs of the West Bengal hill district.

The property prices in three of the four sub-divisions of the district - Kurseong, Kalimpong and Darjeeling - have nosedived in recent times following frequent assault on and security threat to non-Gorkha population. The latter are leaving the hill towns in hordes selling their properties cheaply to Gorkhas or the latter's nominees. Darjeeling's erstwhile high performing tourism business, world-famous tea plantation industry and top class residential schools, which once provided the people of the district the highest per capita income in West Bengal, are in doldrums.

There is no sign of the revival of the business climate in the near future until peace returns to the hills, the government acts firmly against GJM leaders and stops their forcible collection of illegal levies from the business community and non-Gorkhas. Strategically-located Siliguri, the fourth Darjeeling district sub-division, where Gorkhas are in a minority, provides the all-important road link (National Highway No. 31) to the rest of India with eight north-eastern states - Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Sikkim is already facing the heat of frequent GJM strike calls, violence at Darjeeling and blockade of NH-31. In an unparallelled move in the annals of federal India, the Sikkim government has sought the Supreme Court's intervention to save the state from being cut off from the rest of the country.

Both the short and long term fallout of the creation of a Gorkhaland could be disastrous to trade and industry in the whole region as well as to the government of India, many fear and not quite illogically. Some of the business leaders, representing such famed organisations as the Tatas, Hindustan Unilever, Williamson Magor, Oil India, ONGC, SAIL, Coal India and GAIL, which have lived and operated through many separatist agitations, terrorist attacks, abductions and ransoms over the years, consider the demand for a Gorkhaland the most dangerous and ill-intentioned of all political agitations and separatist movements in the region. A Gorkhaland today may encourage a more violent movement for a sovereign republic of Gorkhastan tomorrow encompassing the adjacent Sikkim, where a systematic infiltration of Nepalese-speaking people has totally changed the demography of the former Lepcha kingdom in favour of the Nepalese (70 per cent).

'Gorkhaland' is too small with too little natural resources to be economically viable. Converting a district into a state will lead to a 100-fold increase in the size of its administration. At present, only one district magistrate, one superintendent of police, four sub-divisional officers, four sub-divisional police officers and their sub-ordinates comprise the district administration. The picture will change vastly if the district ever becomes a state. It will have a chief minister, several other ministers, legislative assembly members, speaker, chief secretary, several secretaries, attorney general, director general of police, at least two DIGs, four to six DMs, SPs and eight to 12 SDOs and SDPOs and their subordinates.

The existing resources of the district can never bear the cost of such a state administration, though smallest by any standard. The possibility is that the latter will impose entry and transit tax on goods entering or passing through Siliguri and NH-31 to other states, including two north Bengal districts, Jalpaiguri and Coochbehar, which will get automatically cut off from West Bengal, for additional revenue. Sadly, some political opportunists, including former BJP leader Yashwant Singh, and misguided local youth deliberately overlook the impracticality of converting a small district into a state and compare its case with Telengana, Vidharbha and Bundelkhand. Fortunately, all main political parties in West Bengal, including arch rivals CPM and Trinamool Congress, are opposed to 'Gorkhaland.'

A geographical separation of the districts of Jalpaiguri and Coochbehar from West Bengal with Darjeeling acting as a buffer state is bound to strengthen the ongoing Kamtapuri separatist movement also demanding a separate state comprising the two north Bengal districts and some adjoining areas of Assam. Paradoxically, the separatist movement in the north east is unlikely to stop at that. On the contrary, the divisive forces in the region, long backed by foreign powers and overseas funds, are bound to raise their heads and use more violent means for their political independence or Sovereign statehood. This may look a bit far-fetched at this point of time, but by no means an impossibility. And, that is what troubling the business community.

Combined together, the north-eastern region offers a great business opportunity for entrepreneurs in a host of areas - from minerals such as coal and dolomite, hydrocarbon and hydro-power to agri-products like tea, cardamom and rubber, forestry, including timber, bamboo and cane, and fruits like citrus, palm, peach and pineapple. Eco-tourism is another area which holds tremendous potential for most parts of the region. But for the continuous political agitations and violent separatist movements, the region could have emerged as one of India's richest and most ecologically protected geographical areas.

Unfortunately, the Union Government did not pay much attention to the economic development of this region. Its resources such as tea, hydro-carbon and forestry were exploited mainly for the benefit of other regions. The security bogey prevented the region from being open to foreign tourists for years. Little has been done by the government to ensure good education, healthcare and jobs for the youth. Even 62 years after independence, most parts of the region remain inaccessible by road or rail. Its vast under-guarded international borders linking Nepal, China, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Kampuchia had for many years made it a safe haven for smugglers of petty household goods to drugs and arms and terrorists, including Maoists from Nepal and North Myanmar. India's ongoing economic reform has failed to touch the life of the youth of the north-east.

The Gorkhaland agitation is an acid test for the Government's ability to exercise its authority not only over the Darjeeling district but also over the entire region to restore confidence of the ordinary people and the business community in the administrative machinery of both the central and the respective state governments. At the same time, the government must launch a number of signature projects — at least one in each of the states and also one at Darjeeling — that will open a host of opportunities for the local youth in the region.

There is an urgent need to revamp the north-eastern development council to be more effective for the region's economic well-being and establish strong people-connect. Three West Bengal districts in the north - Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri and Coochbehar - should be made part of the north-eastern council without any delay. It is time that the Union Government invests directly in people of this region to prevent them from going directionless and falling into terrorist traps. More than any thing else, the people from the north-east need to be truly integrated with the rest of the society and they should be made to feel equal to everyone else in the country. (IPA Service)