Business in the dynamic city of Hyderabad is at a virtual standstill with repeated bandhs and the software hub is rapidly losing its sheen, thanks to the blunderous approach of the Congress High Command to the issue of a separate state of Telangana. Troubles were initially precipitated with a midnight announcement on December 6 that the process of formation of Telangana would be “initiated”.

This brought to an end Mr. Rao's fast who gloated over an unexpected victory and the Osmania and other University students in Telangana gave up their acts of vandalism and celebrated. But the larger and wider counter-agitation from coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, stoutly opposed to the break up of 'Vishal Andhra”, forced the Central leaders to backtrack on December 23 and announce the situation has “altered”, necessitating “wide-ranging consultations with all political parties and groups in Andhra Pradesh”.

The Centre's appeal for peace and harmony in the State was now met with a second wave of pro-Telangana demonstrations and violence. Emboldened Mr. Rao is now setting terms for the Centre. He would neither accept “wide-ranging consultations” nor a second States Reorganisation Commission to go into formation of new states. Indeed the TRS leader, who has set up a joint action committee, demands a time-frame to be announced by the Prime Minister for carving out Telangana by the end of December failing which his action committee would launch an “indefinite bandh”. He is managing to rope in TDP and other political outfits for a united front.

Emerging political pressures have led 13 Telangana Ministers of the Congress Government to send a “common resignation letter” to the Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi to demonstrate their concern for the demand for a new state. The veteran Chief Minister Mr. Rosaiah has had to face a series of challenges since he was asked to take over by the high command on September 2 and kept the administration as a going concern but has been unable to tackle firmly the violent eruptions in one region or the other, in the context of the high command's waywardness.

Andhra Pradesh, which ensured power for the Congress at the Centre in the May elections, has been thrown into successive waves of violent outbursts which could have been avoided had the central leaders given greater and more careful attention to emerging developments in the State and launched, in the first instance, the process of democratic consultations both with all parties in the State as well as the national level also involving UPA allies. In all this period since the Telangana situation took a serious turn with Mr. Rao's fast beginning on November 30, tough-talking Mr. Veerappa Moily, the central leader in charge of Andhra affairs, kept himself away from the State.

The largest South Indian State, back in the Congress fold since 2004,has been going through travails since the tragic death of its popular chief minister Dr. Y S Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR) who steered the party to success for the second term and helped Congress to bag as many as 32 Lok Sabha seats. Devastating floods, a power struggle to take over chief ministership by YSR's son Mr. Jaganmohan Reddy, MP with backing of a large number of party MLAs and a section of Ministers in the Rosaiah Cabinet, and a fiscal crunch with fall in revenues holding up development programmes have all had to be overcome patiently by Mr. Rosaiah.

Apparently, in making the abrupt announcement of December 9 on the state's division, the central leaders had taken the solid support of the Pradesh Congress from all regions for granted. It was this miscalculation followed by widespread agitation in the non-Telangana regions forced a reversal of that move with the Home Minister Mr Chidambaram announcing on December 23 that the situation has “altered” necessitating “wide-ranging consultations with all parties and groups in the State”.

The manner in which such a vital issue as division of Andhra Pradesh - the first linguist state created in the Fifties - has been handled by the Congress President Ms. Sonia Gandhi and her core group including the Home Minister Mr. P Chidambaram defies political logic. The first decision was clearly designed to bring an end to the fast of the Telangana leader Mr. K Chandrasekhara Rao who was in a critical state and thus amounted to yielding to coercion. Ending his fast on a note of triumph, Mr. Rao expressed his gratitude to Ms. Sonia Gandhi. Suddenly Mr. Rao had become the Messiah for the Telengana people.

But Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema erupted with bandhs, fasts and 'rokos' of rail traffic, climaxed by the resignations en masse of MLAs (Congress, TDP and Praja Rajyam) from these regions. As pressures mounted from party leaders including MPs from both non-Telangana regions against the break-up of the 'Vishal Andhra', the central leaders dithered and finally Mr. Chidambaram made the retreat saying political parties are divided and therefore there is need to hold “wide-ranging consultations” with all parties and groups in the State. Dismayed by this shift in the Centre's position, Mr. Rao has been indulging in his proverbial abuse of his political opponents and the Central Government.

Deprived of what seemed to be already in their lap, the students are back on the war path and 60 of 119 MLAs of Telangana have decided to resign. The State Assembly had remained paralysed on the few days it met from December 7 with disruption of proceedings by Telangana MLAs and later by those from the other regions after Mr. Chidambaram's first announcement. The house had to be adjourned sine die. If the current agitation intensifies, with the joint action committee formed by Mr. Rao, and the Ministers from the Telangana region press their resignations, the Rosaiah Government already in an existential crisis may have to make way for a spell of President's rule and enforcement of law and order in the State.

The political turmoils have brought business to near standstill not only in Hyderabad but in other centres where a second round of agitations cannot be ruled out. Political uncertainty has affected business sentiment and investor confidence, especially among the leading foreign firms. There has been extensive damage to railway tracks and property and the South Central Railway has cancelled scores of passenger trains on the major trunk routes.

If the Central leadership had offered to hold talks with Mr. Rao in the early stages of his fast when he was pining for a call from Ms. Sonia Gandhi for consultations, it would have helped to make a beginning with an orderly process on the question of forming a separate state of Telangana. The “wide ranging” consultations now sought could have been organised in a sequenced manner and such consultations might have thrown up broadly acceptable solutions including the future status of Hyderabad. The Telangana leader is determined to see that Hyderabad remained the capital of the new state and says the “settlers” in the city should have no fears on their future. The Andhra problem has implications for stability of the UPA itself and the Centre would have to move with greater care and maturity and proceed to establish a firm consensus. (IPA Service)