Union Home Secretary Mr. G.K. Pillai had claimed that Mr. Rajkhowa, who had been living in Bangladesh with his family for some years, had surrendered. However, Mr. Rajkhowa himself denied this strongly when he was produced briefly in court in Guwahati recently. ”We have not surrendered,” he asserted and protested against Assam police officials who handcuffed him.

Speculation about what had really happened in Bangladesh, where Mr. Rajkhowa and his colleague and fellow ULFA leader Raju Baruah were rounded up with their families, continues to be rife among observers. Altogether ten people were taken close to the Indo-Bangladesh border and Indian troops took them into custody at the Dawki outpost.

There is no extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh. Dhaka-based observers have suggested that Indian Intelligence authorities had been keeping close track of Mr. Rajkhowa for almost three months and they arrested him.

The development followed the arrest earlier of two other top ULFA leaders Chitraban Hazarika and Sasha Choudhury, both of whom were picked up in Bangladesh, which would no longer provide shelter to the ULFA leaders. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed had announced officially that no terrorist activity would be permitted on Bangladesh territory and clearly she had ordered her administration to live up to her promise.

Among major ULFA leaders, only military commander Mr. Paresh Barua is now operating out of India, believed to be somewhere close to the China-Myanmar border with some followers. He has indicated that the ULFA's struggle would go on and as for official talks, he would participate if only India was willing to discuss sovereignty for Assam, which the Centre has turned down from the beginning.

There is no doubt that over the years, the ULFA, most of whose leaders are currently lodged in various jails in Assam, has lost much ground. This does not mean that it cannot carry out acts of violence or sabotage. Last month, six people were killed in a bomb explosion carried out by the organisation and only days ago, a person was arrested with explosives, close to an oil refinery.

The loss of its sanctuaries, first in Bhutan and now in Bangladesh leaves the ULFA without a safe base outside India. While contacts have been established with China, it is by no means clear whether India's large northern superpower neighbour would allow the organisation to set up an operational base as happened with Bhutan or Bangladesh, where during the BNP regime, a number of camps were run by Indian insurgent groups.

For the time being, the situation remains unclear regarding the future of the centre-ULFA dialogue. These developments have come as a dampener for pro-insurgency forces in the north-east region as a whole. (IPA)