From now on, she will generally be perceived as being in the BJP’s corner perhaps even in UP where her tie-up with the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav is expected to reduce the BJP’s tally in the state to a single digit, down from the present 73 out of 80.

In fact, it is now open to question whether the bua-bhatija (aunt-brother’s son) camaraderie of Mayawati and Akhilesh will at all last since the latter’s offer of 36 seats to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) czarina may not match her expectations of what she regards as a “respectable” figure in case she is bent on breaking the partnership.

It doesn’t take much political perspicacity to guess that the BJP is pulling out all the stops to wean her away from the Samajwadi Party. The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo has already tasted blood by wrecking the chances of a Congress-BSP alliance in Chhattisgarh and possibly Madhya Pradesh as well where Mayawati has already announced her list of 22 candidates.

But, for the BJP, UP is the big prize. If it can create a rift between bua and bhatija, the outcome of the Gorakhpur, Phulpur, Kairana and Noorpur by-elections where the BJP was routed will be no more than a bad dream.

What does Mayawati get out of it apart from a reprieve from the disproportionate assets cases against her and her kith and kin by the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate?

Since the BJP is expected to be a weaker party post-2019 than what it was immediately after 2014, those in close touch with it (like Nitish Kumar) are banking on the possibility of gaining in prominence. Mayawati probably has similar calculations in mind.

Besides, she may have realized that for all the talk about her becoming the prime minister (which has been in the air since Prakash Karat’s anti-American misadventure of 2008), her earlier alliances with the BJP and her legal vulnerabilities vis-à-vis her opulent lifestyle may mar her chances of being the first choice of the national opposition, not least because of the presence of other contenders like Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee.

And now, she has even less of a chance since the latest rounds of her politicking are bound to be seen as helpful to the BJP. Moreover, other challengers have emerged within her own community who may be preferred by the national opposition because of their resolute anti-BJP stance.

Among them are Jignesh Mewani, the Gujarat legislator, and Chandrasekhar Azad ‘Ravan’, the leader of the Bhim Army, who came into prominence during the Dalit-Rajput clashes in Saharanpur, UP a year ago and was incarcerated under the National Security Act till recently.

Although Chandrashekhar also called Mayawati his bua, she rebuffed the overture, presumably because she believed that the new generation of Dalit leaders with their clean images would steal a march over her where popular appeal, especially among the youth, and political dependability are concerned.

It is obvious that her dalliance with the BJP will not go down well with the Dalits who have long been disenchanted with the Brahmin-Bania party although it tried to make amends by choosing a Dalit as the President. However, such tokenism does not work in these cynical times.

It may not be too far-fetched to suggest that Mayawati may well be contesting her last major election since the chances of the youngsters gradually taking her place in the “secular” camp are high.

If the proposed Congress-BSP alliances fail to take off in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress would do well to reach an understanding with Jignesh Mewani, as it did in Gujarat, and with Chandrasekhar to keep the support of the Dalits on its side and ensure that the anti-BJP votes are not split as a result of Amit Shah’s machinations.

The uncertainty about Mayawati’s place in an opposition alliance means that notwithstanding the bonhomie which she displayed with Sonia Gandhi at HD Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in as the Karnataka chief minister in Bengaluru last May, the non-BJP camp can be said to be slowly acquiring a reliable shape.

It can now be said to comprise the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Samajwadi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Janata Dal (Secular), the DMK, the RashtriyaLok Dal and the Left parties. This “core” is likely to survive till 2019.

There are, of course, others who can be roped in, such as the YSR Congress or the AamAdmi Party. But the Congress’s generally standoffish attitude can be a hindrance in this respect.

In addition, there are the fence-sitters – the Biju Janata Dal being the foremost among them. They can be left alone so that they can jump on to the winning side after the elections. (IPA Service)