Interestingly, despite her party’s downward turn, political parties are vying with each other to tie up with the BSP for the simple reason that BSP votes are transferable. While it may be a million- dollar question whether she will achieve her ambition but her relevance in the grand plans for opposition unity cannot be questioned. Even the BJP is not averse to an alliance with the BSP. The BSP has presence in 18 states. It is the third-largest party after Congress and the BJP if one goes by the vote share. In 2014, despite not getting a single seat, it secured 19.8 per cent votes in UP and more than 4.5 per cent votes in Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand besides getting respectable vote shares in Karnataka, Punjab, Delhi, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Mayawati’s clout had increased after she supported the SP in the recent by polls to Gorakhpur and Phulpur, which showed that a united opposition could easily defeat the BJP. A similar pre- poll alliance with the JD (S) in Karnataka showed the success of a united opposition. There were expectations that this might be carried on to the year- end Assembly polls as well as the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The first test will be the ensuing Assembly polls to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — all BJP ruled states facing strong anti incumbency. A defeat or victory will go a long way for both BJP and the Congress. Dalits constitute over 17 per cent in Rajasthan, 15 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and nearly 12 per cent in Chhattisgarh and the three states together account for 65 Lok Sabha seats. The BSP polled 3.5 per cent votes in Rajasthan, 6.3 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and 4.25 per cent in Chhattisgarh in 2013 Assembly elections. So Mayawati is in a bargaining position.

However, instead of going for a grand alliance, which the Congress was hoping to form, Mayawati dashed their hopes in Chhattisgarh by aligning with former chief minister Ajit Jogi, who had left Congress and formed his own Janata Congress. Mayawati has shown that she is unpredictable and will not blindly join the anti BJP front. It is a double snub to the Congress that she chose to align with Ajit Jogi. As a second blow, in Madhya Pradesh the BSP has decided to contest all the seats even while the Congress was dilly-dallying about the seat sharing formula. While the BSP won only four seats in MP, Dalit voters might tilt the balance, especially in the Chambal area. In a third blow to the Congress the BSP might align with the third front formed by the SP and left parties in Rajasthan, where the Congress is in a position to win.

Had the Congress been more accommodative in seat sharing with the BSP, things would not have gone so far. The Congress is still in a ‘majority party mindset’ not realizing the reality that it has lost its strength. So for all purposes the opposition votes might be divided, which might be to the advantage of the BJP. The ruling party’s hope to come back to power depends entirely on a divided opposition and being in power at the Centre, the BJP is in a position to put pressure on Mayawati and other opposition leaders who are facing cases. Both Mayawati and Ajit Jogi are facing CBI cases of corruption in Chhattisgarh.

All these show that the going will not be easy for the opposition plan of a grand alliance if things are not tackled well. It is what Mayawati does in U.P that matters more. By that time the opposition will know where they stand and it cannot be ruled that for their own political survival they might come together but most parties are looking to a post poll scenario. As of now, there is no doubt that Maya has dashed the hopes of the Congress by going her way. (IPA Service)