Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be seeking a second consecutive term while the Congress President Rahul Gandhi will be testing his fortunes since he took over the reins of the party in March. If Modi secures another term, the country will move closer to becoming a majoritarian state. It is clear that 2019 will not be a cake-walk for Modi and the coming months will be crucial for Opposition unity.

The political parties are getting ready as the poll dates are likely to be announced in late February or March. The Election Commission is also preparing for the event. About 900 million voters including 100 million First time voters will exercise their franchise.

Many opinion polls suggest that the anti-incumbency sentiment is on the rise, which could dash the hopes of the Modi’s attempt to win a second term. The BJP won 73/80 in UP, 25/25 in Rajasthan, 27/29 in MP, 26/26 in Gujarat, 7/7 in Delhi, 5/5 in Uttarakhand and 4/4 in Himachal Pradesh. This peak performance and may not be repeated as in 2019 as BJP might lose at least100 seats. This has to be compensated from northeast and the south.

According to a poll conducted by Karvy Insights and India Today, the BJP is likely to win 30 per cent of votes in the 2019 elections, and secure 245 seats, 27 short of a majority. Previous Lokniti-CSDS polls also suggest that the BJP’s popularity is on the decline although the Prime Minister’s personal popularity continues. The BJP has lost popularity mainly due to two economic measures – demonetization and imposition of GST. Both hurt the small and medium businesses that are the core voters of the BJP.

It is not clear whether the winner will be a BJP-led coalition or a Congress-led or a Third Front coalition. The fight will be between the ruling NDA and the Congress-anchored UPA. The opposition needs an astute strategy to defeat the NDA. The new narrative is likely to be Modi versus the rest.

Secondly, while Modi will be the face of the BJP in 2019 polls, the UPA will not project any one. Their prime ministerial candidate will be decided only in the post poll scenario. Therefore though the Congress will try to unite the opposition, the party president Rahul Gandhi will not be projected as the prime ministerial face of the UPA as they will talk of collective leadership.

Thirdly, both UPA and the NDA are in the process of strengthening their coalitions. The NDA has been weakened by the exit of two major allies - the Telugu Desam and the PDP and the Shiv Sena also threatens to quit. The BJP faces a challenge in the South. The Congress Party has already reached an understanding with small regional parties to build state-specific coalitions including in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jharkhand, Bihar and in UP alliance with the SP, BSP and Left parties are in the making.

Fourthly, economy and jobs will be major issues in the election along with corruption, non- delivery of Modi’s poll promises, demonetization, GST, Rafale, Cow vigilantism, Ram mandir in Ayodhya, rising petrol prices, agrarian crisis and the widening division of castes. These are becoming potential threats to the BJP ahead of elections. The BJP strategy is to attack the Congress for its failure in the past 70 years; consolidations of the Hindu votes and communicate the achievements of Modi government.

Fifthly, economy is reviving which may be a relief for the Modi government. Multilateral organizations like the World Bank and the IMF are predicting a sound revival for the year 2019. On the ease of doing business, India has moved up to 42 places to reach the top 100 for the first time.

Sixthly, both the Congress and the BJP will play the Hindutva card with the Congress adopting a soft Hindutva line. Rahul Gandhi will continue his temple hopping.

Lastly, both Modi and Rahul will need a new narrative to win. Whatever it may be, the BJP is likely to emerge as number one party whether it gets the majority or not and it will be invited to form the government first, as is the convention. (IPA Service)