Chief minister Mamata Banerjee is at the crossroads: her ambition of playing a stellar role within the unified bloc of non-Congress opposition parties will now be difficult to fulfill, with the INC recording major gains. The Congress has recovered much of its lost ground, relevance and prestige. The regional parties in contrast did not do very well. Even the Mayawati-led BSP, with its assured support base in several states, could not play its spoiler role effectively enough. That is nothing short of a warning for parties like Trinamool Congress (TMC) or the Telugu Desam (TDP), clear leaders in the opposition pack.

The TMC has consistently underplayed the importance of INC in the political battle to oust the BJP from power. Having practically wiped out Congress in Bengal by force or money power, Mamata has repeatedly said that strong ruling regional parties should go it alone.

The assumption is that having won 34 seats in 2014, her party, which has all but decimated the Left parties and the Congress, may win even more in 2019. She and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee (MP from Diamond Harbour) have called upon party workers and supporters to make sure that all 42 seats go to the TMC, creating an opposition-free state. If TMC emerges as the strongest regional party in the 2019 polls, leaders reckon, both Congress and the BJP will listen to TMC”s terms instead of dictating them to secure a majority.

But the broad takeaway from the five state assembly elections has not proved encouraging for such sweet TMC dreams. Even in the states where local issues assume great importance, people have shown their clear preference for political traditions and track record. They voted strongly for two national, not regional, parties. Telangana has been the only exception, (its size rules out the example set in MIzoram).

One reason for this could be that by now the Indian electorate very well understands the pressure tactics (blackmail?) that smaller parties use against larger parties in uneasy coalitions to secure their narrow state-level ends. Worse, when not satisfied, they do not hesitate to walk out, deserting their senior partners, without bothering about the resultant destabilisation.

With the 2019 Lok Sabha polls barely months away, the apparent reluctance of voters to support regional parties should worry the TMC, TDP and similar regional outfits. Next year, state level issues will be important in some pockets. But national issues, especially the impact of recent policies of the Centre on common people, will matter much more.

Above all, Congress president Rahul Gandhi has finally ‘arrived’, although there are still critics who say political greatness has been thrust upon him. Even for hardened BJP leaders, it will not be easy to ridicule him. His baptism by fire has ended. Now there is no reason why the resurgent Congress, led by a youthful leader whom common people take more seriously than before, should hold back any longer.

While this is bad news for the BJP, it may be worse for Mamata. While most other opposition parties have no objection to working with Congress and accepting its president as the natural leader of a united opposition, Mamata has different ideas. The TMC has proposed to leave the choice of a leader ending till the outcome is known. The TMC also prefers to fight on its own without pre-electoral ties with any outfit because it will ensure a division among the voters opposing it. Anti-TMC votes will be shared between BJP and the LF/Congress alliance (if there is one), or split three ways—for the BJP, the Left Front parties led by the CPI(M) and the INC.

The Bengal Congress unit led by president Somen Mitra has strongly opposed any understanding with the TMC and with Rahul at the helm, it is unlikely that the party high command will overrule the state. However, both the left front and Congress in Bengal are keen to have a pre electoral alliance, but not everyone agrees. The CPI(M) Central Committee, which has overruled Bengal in the past may not endorse Kolkata’s demand.

There is no doubt that as of now, with its support base intact among the Muslims (27% of the population) and its rural support base, the TMC is poised to become the largest single party in 2019. No opposition party can even come close, let alone win more seats than the TMC.

Game over then, for the opposition? Not quite. The recently held panchayat elections, which saw widespread one-sided violence unleashed by TMC and the death of over 60 people in group clashes, etc, also exposed its weakness. While 34% of the gram panchayat seats were won by TMC as the opposition candidates were terrorised, depriving 1.7 crore voters from exercising their franchise, the strongest challenge to the ruling party came from within. The ‘independents’ mostly dissident TMC men who could not secure nominations, contested on their own strength and won 24% of the aggregate vote, securing second position. The BJP came third winning 17%.

TMC insiders claim to have won between 42% and 44% of the aggregate vote. But if true, that would leave only around 15% of the total vote shared between the LF parties and Congress, which seems absurd, on any reckoning. Most observers think that even at its weakest, the CPI(M) and other Left parties would still win around 20-25% of the total vote even in the most one-sided elections.

More alarmingly, it has not been possible for TMC to win back many of the dissident winners in the panchayat polls, as its leaders claimed they would be able to do. Given the daily recurrence of violence among TMC factions, openly involving its youth wing against the party proper, it is unlikely that leaders can restore even minimal order. Police sources confirm the death of over 100 TMC supporters and workers in inner party violence over a two-year period.

To complicate matters further, there are reports of such dissidents joining hands with the local BJP or Left parties to fight TMC. A recent high profile expulsion of a north Bengal TMC leader has occurred because of his’ hobnobbing with the BJP.’
Should TMC leaders first set their own house in order before turning their attention to developments in Delhi or elsewhere? Ironically, the idea would receive some support within the TMC itself. Unfortunately their supreme leader is not willing to listen as of now. (IPA Service)