At present all the six top political leaders of ULFA are lodged in Guwahati central jail. They are chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, vice-chairman Pradeep Gogoi, 'foreign secretary' Sasadhar Choudhury, 'finance secretary' Chitrabon Hazarika, 'publicity secretary' Mithinga Daimari, and Mr Paresh Barua's second in command, deputy C-in-C Raju Barua. Only, the 'cultural secretary', Ms. Pranati Deka, is in women's jail. These leaders are reportedly holding consultations about the terms of talks with the Government. Another senior leader, Mr Bhimkanta Buragohain, is expected to be shifted from the Tezpur jail to Guwahati so that he can take part in the discussions.

The Government thinks that even if Mr. Paresh Barua refuses to abandon militancy and join the peace process, it will be easy to isolate him once the political leadership agrees to talks. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has hinted that the negotiations may be lengthy while senior Home Ministry officials said it may take a month or two. What has reinforced optimism of the State and the Centre about peace prospects is the increasing cooperation of the people at the ground level with the police and paramilitary forces dealing with insurgency.

Last year, over 200 militants were killed and more than 1600 arrested, while 400 surrendered to the security forces along with about 800 pieces of arms. This, senior officials claim, could not have been possible without the active cooperation of the people who are helping with information about the movement of militants. There are instances of villagers contacting the Army and seeking their help against the militants. The extent of mass support that ULFA enjoyed once upon a time has been greatly eroded. People have come to realise the absurdity of the demand for a sovereign Assam. They have also been thoroughly disillusioned by the life-style of the ULFA leaders, their amassing of wealth, killing of innocent persons, ruthless extortion and all that.

In fact, the loss of mass support has been the biggest factor in softening the stand of the ULFA leaders that nothing short of sovereignty is acceptable to them. Then came the radical change in the attitude of the Bangladesh Government towards them. For years and decades they practically enjoyed the hospitality of the Bangladesh authorities who allowed them full freedom to operate against India from their soil. They pretended that no militants from north-east India were taking shelter in Bangladesh even when confronted with irrefutable evidence of it, like photographs of camps set up by ULFA, NLFT, ATTF, NDFB, etc. But all that changed when Sheikh Hasina was returned to power. She made it clear at the very outset that unlike the previous government, she was not going to give any quarter to the north-east ultras.

But Mr Paresh Barua is not sitting idle either. He is acutely aware of the challenge to his leadership coming from within. He is reportedly trying to reorganise his forces. As a first step, he has replaced Mr Gulit Das by Mr Partha Basumatari as the commander of the 109 battalion of ULFA. This battalion has, of late, assumed greater importance after the disarray of the outfit's most dreaded 28 battalion, caused by large-scale defections and surrenders. On his part, Lt. Gen. K. T. Patnaik, GOC of 4 corps, warned that operations against those taking up arms against the State would continue. But he was hopeful that peace would be restored in Assam in 2010.

It is generally believed that once ULFA abandons the path of violence and joins the mainstream, it would be far easier to tackle all the smaller insurgent groups in the north-eastern region operating in Assam, Manipur and Tripura, like the anti-talk factions of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), and Dima Halam Daoga (DHD).

The militant outfits are also riven with factionalism, sometimes leading to armed clashes and assassinations. The murder of Ms. Lilavati Daimary, sister of NDFB chairman Ranjan Daimary, by three masked AK-47-toting youths on January 4 at a village near Udalguri is a case in point. She was a teacher in a local school. Mr Hagrama Mohilary, Chief Executive Member (CEM) of the Bodo Territorial Council (BTC) made a cryptic comment: “Ranjan Daimary might have done wrong, but for that killing his sister is an act of cowardice. Such killings will not solve any problem.”

While peace prospects have certainly brightened, the real problem that has to be resolved is how, short of sovereignty, ULFA's demands can be met within the framework of the Constitution. Because, whatever formula is eventually worked out, it will have its impact not only on all the north-eastern States but the country as a whole. (IPA Service)