The challenge for the Congress leadership is to take the momentum forward until the 2019 Lok Sabha polls where stakes are very high for both the Congress-led UPA and the BJP led NDA. After all, momentum matters in politics. A diminished BJP is not going to sit quiet and allow the Congress to have a free run in the 2019 polls and it might redouble its efforts to win the polls. Modi is an assertive prime minister and might repackage himself and re-introduce ‘Brand Modi ’in a different mould. In all probability the alternative politics might get a momentum if Rahul goes the right way to project his party and himself with a new narrative, as people are willing to give him a chance going by the poll results.

Gandhi’s first priority should be to set right the organisation, which has shrunk electorally and redouble efforts for opposition unity. The Congress is now number four in states such as West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and it has finished third or fourth in many states because many sections like the Dalits, Tribals and upper castes and even Muslims have drifted away. The BJP’s strength is that it is a cadre based organisation, it has unlimited resources, best communication skills and a wonderful propaganda machinery. Internally, the young Gandhi has chosen to go with the old guard as the message to the party is clear in his choice of chief ministers in the just won states. He more or less told the youth that younger leaders will be allowed to build their profiles, even if they must wait a bit for leadership roles.

The second should be building alliances. Here, even with the wind in its sails, the Congress faces challenges. The opposition parties have inherent contradictions. Gandhi has been showing some boldness by walking with Jignesh Mewani and Hardik Patel in Gujarat, which helped reduce the numbers of the BJP in Gujarat. Similarly, the decision to support JD(S) in Karnataka earlier this year to stop the BJP from forming the government also showed his political adventurism. The party has tied up in different states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, and Jharkhand and is in the process of aligning with SP and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress has to not only to keep the UPA flock together but also expand where necessary. As a bigger party the Congress has to be flexible in sharing seats with the regional parties.

The third is about a new narrative. It is not enough to indulge just Modi-bashing and negative campaign. Rahul succeeded in tapping the political resentment of the farmers against the BJP government as also the youth discontent in not getting jobs. These are the two major issues, which helped him win the three states apart from the negative sentiments about the demonetisation and the GST. The caste factor also helped the Congress. Though he is harping on the Rafale deal, it is not clear how much that has helped.

The fourth is stitching the Opposition unity. The success in the Assembly polls has given Gandhi a new image and he should be able to reach out to the senior and regional opposition parties and ensure that the Congress anchors the coalition. After Karnataka polls the opposition showed interest in forming a Grand Alliance but of late the alliance is coming apart with BSP and SP moving away. It is now clear that the prime ministerial face of the opposition will be decided only in the post poll scenario. It is quite possible that the opposition can do the magic if they come together and make sure that opposition votes are not divided. In fact, Modi’s strength lies in the Opposition disunity.

The road to success in 2019 is challenging, but Rahul Gandhi has begun with a good start. Despite setbacks, the BJP remains a formidable opponent, and cannot be taken lightly by the Congress as the party is far more organized with its cadres. Many in the BJP remind the Congress that it must look back how in December 2003 the saffron party won the same three states but the party lost the 2004 elections. The Congress should not be carried away by the present success. It has won the battle but not the war as yet. Time is very short and the Opposition parties must decide their course of action sooner than later. (IPA Service)