This is more so after the SP-BSP announced their alliance in Uttar Pradesh on Saturday and the Congress deciding to contest all seats in UP on Sunday. The alliance between the SP and the BSP has been on the cards for some time and the announcement on Saturday only confirmed it. This is indeed a major decision as the combination will be a success if you look at the caste arithmetic. The chemistry too should work as it did in the recent by-elections in Gorakhpur and Phulpur.

Without these two parties, there cannot be a Mahagathbandhan as their focus is now on winning the maximum number of seats in their state, and they will think of the prime ministerial bid after the poll results are announced. “We want the next Prime Minister to be from Uttar Pradesh and everyone knows whom I will support,” Akhilesh Yadav said, hinting that the BSP chief Mayawati might throw her hat in the ring if they get a good number of seats. The RLD might find a place in their alliance. So, it is clear that there will be multi-corned contest in UP. The Congress, which was hoping to find a place in the alliance, is now reconciled to fighting solo in the polls but its morale is high after the recent win in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. UP has the maximum number of seats and who wins UP wins India. The BJP won 71 seats in 2014 and losing UP would dent its overall tally in the coming polls.

With no UPA at the national level, the Congress is trying to focus on state-specific alliances. There are about 350 seats where the alliances are already in place. The party has a two-level strategy. The first is to fight solo in states where it is strong and the second is to go for alliances with the regional and smaller parties in states.

The Congress has been successful in stitching alliances with various small and regional parties. In Karnataka, the party has combined with the Janata Dal (Secular). In Tamil Nadu, the Congress has been an ally of the DMK. In Bihar, the party is in alliance with the RJD and some smaller parties. In 2015, the Mahagathbandhan with the JD(U) and other parties worked well for the Congress but this time JD(U) is with the NDA. In Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP ties have been firmed up and even seat-sharing is almost decided. In Kerala, the Congress leads the UDF coalition. The UDF and the LDF have been alternating in power in Kerala. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the Congress has an alliance with the Telugu Desam Party. In Gujarat, the party has smartly stitched alliance with the local leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakur during the Gujarat Assembly polls and that continues. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress could go for an alliance with the National Conference.

In West Bengal, the Congress is divided about the alliance whether to go with the CPI-M or Trinamool Congress but it will choose one of them clearly. In UP, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Puducherry, the Congress might fight solo.

So where does that leave the Grand Alliance? It can be successful only when all the anti BJP forces come together to fight the BJP and going by the present trend it may not happen.

The opposition is sending conflicting signals about its unity. While the SP-BSP has announced its alliance, the Telengana chief minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has been trying to form a federal front with the regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee.

His bête noire Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has also been trying to unite the anti-BJP forces at the national level and has been talking to various parties

The NCP chief Sharad Pawar has been entrusted with the task of talking to various parties ahead of the 2019 polls. With the parries pulling in different directions the Grand Alliance at the national level is a mirage.

In such a scenario with a split in opposition votes in several states it is advantage Modi as the BJP has a disciplined cadre, unlimited resources, excellent communication strategy and above all the leadership of a strong leader like Modi. It is simple mathematics that as long as anti Modi votes are split, the chances of winning for the opposition are not bright unless they untie. (IPA Service)