Bua who till recently was averse to listening to even mention of the word SP has turned magnanimous to her bhatija, son of the Mulayam Singh Yadav, the prime enemy of Bua. Bhatija has also pledged her complete obeisance to her. Emergence of this chemistry primarily owes to the BJP losing Lok Sabha seats of Phulpur and Gorakhpur in UP in by-election to BSP-SP seat adjustment. This has raised their political moral so high that they have forgot the difference between realism and snobbery.

Mayawati known for her hyperboles has forgotten the basic element of political maturity and is depending on the propensity of false ego. Like Modi’s reservation for EBCs, she treats her entering into alliance with SP as her master stroke, which in fact is not. True speaking her hasty reaction to a major extent reflected her insecurity. She might have waited but preferred to move faster. She is not sure of the political turns and twists.

For the 2019 Lok Sabha elections SP and BSP have confirmed their alliance in Uttar Pradesh, declaring they will contest 38 seats each. But she kept the Congress away from alliance. This again sends the clear message that she intends to weave an alliance of OBC and dalits. She is no more in favour of sarvajan (all) unity. It also implied that the twelve per cent of the support base of upper castes which still Congress commands will not be transferred to the Dali-OBC candidates of SP-BSP. Not to be forgotten he upper caste supporters of Congress had supported the SP candidates in Phulpur and Gorakhpur.

Hopes are being expressed that before the war actually onsets, the Congress may be inducted into the alliance. This possibility in fact cannot be ruled out. Everything is possible in politics. But the damage has already been done. In fact expectation are made that door will be kept open for Congress to join up with SP and BSP in a post-poll arrangement should the opportunity or necessity arise. The way Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav are moving ahead one thing is quite sure that BJP would not have to face a tough challenge. The upper caste people will rally behind the BJP. Already some backward castes have expressed their support to the BJP. In the changed situation the shift in the political loyalty will also have a major impact on the election

The assembly elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have thrown open the emerging new political trends. The upper caste people who had deserted the Congress some 25 years back are veering around the Congress. The farmers and peasants which too have shifted their allegiance are coming back to the Congress fold. With these changes taking place Congress performing beyond comprehension cannot be ruled out.

Mayawati and Akhilesh ought to realize that dalit perception is changing fast. They no more treat Mayawati as their supreme leader. The recent changes have brought about fundamental shift in their political needs and awareness. They are for asserting their identity than seeking some freebies. One thing is also sure that Muslims have also come to realize the futility of wasting their votes. In the 2017 UP assembly polls SP and BSP had both won 22% of Muslim vote share. In this election which is for Lok Sabha their mandate will prove to be decisive and SP-BSP cannot expect to garner it.

This is Lok Sabha election and the BJP will put its best foot forward. Narendra Modi would not certainly provide a leeway to his opponents. He has the capacity to upset opposition calculations. What really is needed at this juncture is the mahagathbandhan of the opposition parties. But the lust for power and more seats has made Mayawati to betray this compulsion. She has even preferred to ignore RLD of Ajit Singh. No doubt a strong alliance of opposition parties could have ensured the defeat of the BJP. But unfortunately Mayawati through her moves appears to be serving the interest of the BJP than leading the pact for ensuring its defeat. Notwithstanding the opposition’s success in recent assembly polls and bypolls earlier, voters could make a distinction in their state-level and national-level choices. It nevertheless cannot be claimed that the SP-BSP tie up provide a solid base for the opposition’s mahagathbandhan plans in the state.

The preparedness of BJP could be understood from the fact that BJP has divided even Gods by caste. The chief minister Yogi has turned Uttar Pradesh into Caste Pradesh. Interestingly Akhilesh Yadav himself confessed “BJP can go to any extent to create differences in our workers. We must be united and counter any such tactics". He had also said that the BJP has promoted hatred and divided people on communal lines. In this backdrop it was more imperative that a broader alliance could have been formed. But unfortunately the personal ego and whim has been preparing the ground in favour of BJP. (IPA Service)