Barely days after BJP-Sena inked a poll pact for Lok Sabha and Maharashtra assembly elections, Uddhav Thackeray triggered a major row in the saffron alliance by invoking the ‘parity’ clause in the agreement and demanding that BJP and Sena share the CM’spost for 2.5 years each. However, BJP leader Chandrakant Patil had made it clear that the CM’s seat would not be shared and would go to the party that had most MLAs.

Sena minister Ramdas Kadam ratcheted up tension further by threatening that the Sena would call off the alliance if it didn’t get the CM post. If the Shiv Sena insists on the unreasonable demand, the alliance may run into trouble and may even break. This will evidently help the Congress-NCP poll pact.

The BJP’s focus has now shifted to working out the fine-print of agreements in Bihar and Tamil Nadu; ironing out differences in Northeast; and prospecting for possible pre- and post poll alliances in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have become a tight contest against a united opposition. In UP smaller parties have been flexing muscles to become king maker. The RLD has got feelers from the Congress even as the former union minister Ajit Singh-led party is widely expected to join the Samajwadi party and BSP alliance. The Bihar deal is oldest and was stuck in December 2018. The poll pact between CM Nitish Kumar and BJP will continue whereby Nitish demanded a respectable share. For the BJP which had won 22 of the 40 seats in the state, this meant scaling down its ambition. Yet it agreed to contesting on 17 seats and giving the same number to Nitish. The Congress has firmed up alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party. Reports from Bihar say Laloo and Congress combine is better placed as, having been in jail for years, Laloo has evoked sympathy of voters. Nitish also suffers from anti-incumbency factor.

In Tamil Nadu, both the Congress and the BJP have entered into poll pact with the two Dravidian party. Expectedly Congress joined hands with the DMK which appears to have better poll prospects. The Congress will contest nine seats and DMK will field its candidates along with smaller parties for the remaining 30 constituencies. The Congress will also contest the lone Lok Sabha seat from Puducherry.

The BJP has joined hands with ruling AIADMK. The alliance between the two parties is said to be marriage of convenience. With the absence of a charismatic leader, AIADMK is rudderless but retains a large vote base nurtured over decades by Jayalalithaa. BJP hopes to cash in on that.

The BJP has suffered a setback in the Northeast with Asom Gana Parishad walking out of the NDA over the citizenship amendment bill which intends to grant citizenship to non-Muslims from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

The BJP’s alliance with Akali Dal remains intact in Punjab. Of 13 Lok Sabha seats from Punjab, Akalis got 10 to contest in the and the BJP three. The numbers will remain same in the coming Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP’s Kerala unit is in talks with Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena, an outfit with following among the OBC Ezhava community. They want half a dozen seats and discussions are on. The BJP may also support a couple of Independent candidates in the state. Kerala has 20 Lok Sabha seats and despite fielding candidates in 18 in the last Parliamentary election, the party could not win even a single seat.

The BJP also expects to gain in Odisha, Telangana and West Bengal—three states where it is pitted against regional players and has worked tirelessly to expand its presence in the last five. (IPA Service)