Not surprisingly, the BJP is pinning high hopes on two seats falling in the region: Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta. BJP leaders are vying with each other to contest from these two seats.

Thiruvananthapuram is the seat which Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor won in a ding-dong battle with senior BJP leader, O. Rajagopal. Tharoor romped home with a narrow margin of over 15, 000 votes in 2014. BJP is likely to field either Kummanam Rajashekharan or K. Surendran, party general secretary. Surendran’s chances have brightened after he has been named captain of the zonal jatha for the Thiruvananthapuram region the party is planning to take out soon. It may be mentioned that the BJP candidate led in three out of the seven assembly segments in Thiruvananthapuram: Kazhakootam, Nemam and Thiruvananthapuram. The Sabarimala agitation will stand the party in good stead, believe BJP leaders. Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor disagrees. The voters will vote for a candidate who stands for secularism and fights the forces of communalism,. He avers. The seat belongs to the CPI but the party is yet to decide on the candidate. Annie Raja is the front-runner in the CPI list.

The result of the Pathanamthitta constituency will be watched with keen interest as Sabarimala falls in this district. The BJP fancies its chances very high; reports have it that general secretary M T Ramesh will secure the BJP ticket. Congress camp is equally hopeful of retaining the seat which sitting MP Anto Antony won with a comfortable majority of over 55,000 votes in 2014. LDF’s chances of springing a surprise are slim.

As regards Attingal, this is the surest seat for the LDF in South Kerala. CPI(M) candidate, most probably, will be sitting MP K. Sampath, who is very popular in the constituency. Another plus point is his impressive performance in Parliament. Also, six out of the seven assembly seats are with the LDF. No wonder, Sampath is exuding optimism. The UDF can give him a fight only if it can field a good candidate who is influential in the constituency. One such candidate is Congress’s Adoor Prakash. He is very close to the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), which has pockets of influence in Attingal. As of now Sampath is sitting pretty.

From Idduki, the CPI(M)-backed Independent Joice George won the seat with a thumping majority of 50,000 votes last time defeating Youth Congress chief Dean Kuriakose. But the situation has changed, claim both the Congress and the BJP. Sabarimala agitation will make a big difference and the CPI(M) will have to pay a heavy price, they point out. They do have a point. But The CPI(M) is sure of weathering the Sabarimala storm. The point of interest is whether George will get a second chance or whether the CPI(M) will field a heavyweight from Idukki.

Mavelikkara seat is a Congress stronghold from where Kodikkunnil Suresh won with a majority of over 32,000 votes in 2014. The loser was CPI’s Chengara Surendran. It remains to be seen if Surenbdran will get another chance. The only candidate who can give Suresh a real fight is Kerala Pulaya Maha Sabha chief Punnala Sreekumar. But the big question is whether the CPI will back him if he fights as an Independent. Punnala is a formidable candidate, concede even UDF circles. Punnala impressed the LDF camp by efficiently managing the ‘Women’s Wall’ programme of which he was the convener.

Kottayam seat belongs to the Kerala Congress(M) candidate, Jose K Mani won in 2014. But he has resigned and become a Rajya Sabha MP. Jose won with a huge margin of over 1,20,000 votes last time. He has shifted because he is no more sure of winning from Kottayam in view of the hostility of the local Congress leadership. As for the CPI(M), the party itself is keen on contesting from this seat. The Janata Dal(S) is not enthusiastic about contesting again from Kottayam. The party is eying another, winning seat this time. But for unexpected developments, Kottayam will stand by KC(M).

As regards Kollam, the stakes are very high for both LDF and the UDF. RSP’s N K Premachandran defeated CPI(M) Politburo member, M A Baby in a prestigious fight in 2014 by a decent margin of over 37,000 votes. Premachandran is quite popular in the constituency as he is perceived as a man of action and a brilliant parliamentarian having won the best parliamentarian prize twice. CPI(M) may field heavyweight KN Balagopal from here. If Balagopal, CPI(M)’s Kollam district secretary, throws his hat in the ring, Kollam will witness an absorbing battle. The CPI(M) is pulling out all the stops to wrest Kollam, a traditional stronghold of the party.

Another prestigious battle is in the offing in Alappuzha, the cradle of communism. Last time Congress’s K C Venugopal won defeating CPI(M)’s Chandrababu by over 19,000 votes. Venu has since grown in stature, having become the right hand man of Congress president Rahul Gandhi. The big question is will Venugopal, who has been made the in charge of all Lok Sabha constituencies in the country, contest? The CPI(M) will have to put up a senior leader if it hopes of wresting Alappuzha from the Congress.

As of now, the UDF has an edge. KPCC chief Mullappally Ramachandran says it will be 20 out of 20 this time. But that, obviously is a tall claim. The CPI(M)-led LDF is determined to improve on its performance in 2014: eight seats. If Sabarimala issue and the propaganda against the CPI(M) on politics of murder following the gruesome killing of two Youth Congress workers in Kasergode affect the voting pattern, then the LDF calculations could be upset. (IPA Service)