Second was Pakistan President Asaf Ali Zardari's threat to wage a thousand-year war with India over the Kashmir dispute. Third were the conflicting statements by different Indian authorities on the issue of the Army's withdrawal from the state.

Taking place after a two-year lull in the fidayeen activities, the state last week witnessed a 22-hour encounter between the two heavily armed terrorists and the Indian Security forces in Srinagar's heart Lal Chowk. The January 6-7 encounter reflected the desperation of militants and their Pakistani sponsors to give a fillip to the terrorist activities. The last such attack had taken place on November 11, 2007 when militants stormed the battalion headquarters of the CRPF. During these two years terrorist activities as also infiltration registered a sharp decline. Besides, Indian security forces stepped-up counter-terrorism steps and increased vigil to check infiltration; the peoples' longing for peace and a check on human rights violations also contributed to the sharp decline in terrorist violence.

That the militancy in the state was gasping was admitted by their Pakistani handlers in their phone talks with the two fidayeen during the encounter. As per the phonetap transcripts, the Pakistan-based handlers told them “Aapne ek murde ghodey mein dobara jaan daali hai” (You have breathed life into a dead horse).

The latest fidayeen attack may not be a one-time affair. With the approaching of summer, attempts will be made to push in large number of infiltrators waiting across the LoC into the state for stepping up terrorist activities. That the Pakistan rulers have also started adopting belligerent postures on the Kashmir issue is indicated by President Asaf Ali Zardari's address to the joint session of the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir's Assembly and Council saying that Pakistan is ready to wage a thousand year war with India over the Kashmir issue. Pakistan's late president Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had also made such a boastful declaration but without any consequence.

Whenever Pakistani rulers face internal problems, they try to divert the people's attention by adopting belligerent postures towards India, particularly on the Kashmir issue. Pakistan's present political establishment is haunted by three major problems, which it is trying to deal with partly by diverting the focus on the Kashmir issue. The problems which even pose threat to Pakistan's integrity are: One, the threat to Zardari's own survival as President. Two, the country is faced with fast-spreading terrorism. Three, the widespread anti-US sentiment and the perception among Pakistanis that Pakistan has virtually been converted into a US colony. .

President Zardari's position has become tenuous following his political isolation. He is also among the thousands of politicians and bureaucrats who were granted amnesty in corruption cases under National Reconciliation Order issued by Pervez Musharraf which has since been scrapped by the Supreme Court. While action has been initiated against the other beneficiaries Zardari may escape action as the President is exempt from legal actions. In a last-ditch effort to end his isolation, Zardari is currently mobilizing support by getting resolutions passed from the Provincial Assemblies reposing “full confidence in the leadership of President Asif Ali Zardari and his policies”. Balochistan's is the first Assembly to pass such a resolution. Similar resolution has been passed by provincial chapters of the ruling party while efforts are under way to get it passed by the other provincial assemblies.

Pakistan's civil society is worried over the intensified activities of the terrorists whom the Pakistani rulers had groomed but who have now become Frankenstein. It is equally agitated over the extension of America's anti-terrorist attacks in Pakistan's territory as they “infringe” the country's sovereignty. Even Pakistani rulers have made subdued protests, but without any effect, against American drones attacks in North Waziristan on the Afghan border. Presidential spokesman said that “drone attacks on Pakistani territory undermined the national consensus supporting the war on militancy raised questions of sovereignty”.

Whether and to what extent the present Pakistani rulers will be able to overcome these problems by diverting the people's attention to the Kashmir issue is a big question.

A debate is now on in India whether the Army needs to be withdrawn by replacing it with the state police in view of the state's improved security situation. But official circles in New Delhi and Srinagar have taken conflicting stands on the issue. National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan has favoured drawing down troop presence in the state in view of the improved security situation. But Chief Minister Omar Abdullah feels that though there has been a sea change in the security situation, the increased level of infiltration is an area of great concern for the government and security forces. He feels that “the time is not ripe for the Army's withdrawal though we have to look towards the programme to reduce the footprints of the Army and to give more responsibilities to the paramilitary and the state police”

On the other hand, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Northern Command Lt. Gen. Jaswal has said that “It may not be a ripe situation for troops to completely return to the barracks, given the dangers that persist from across the border and internally.” There is logic in both Omar Abdullah and Lt. Gen. Jaswal's arguments for not showing haste in withdrawing the Army from Jammu and Kashmir in view of the Pakistani rulers' latest postures which raise the possibility of increased terrorist activities in the state.

In the light of the latest developments on Kashmir, it is imperative for New Delhi to adopt a clear and unambiguous approach to deal with the Jammu and Kashmir problem. (IPA Service)