As in every election, there are important factors emerging in the upcoming polls too. For instance, the Modi factor could play a key role as he will dominate the show. The party believes that the ‘Modi magic’ would work this time also. However, Modi of 2014 was a relatively new phenomenon. After five years people have seen him, heard him and assessed his performance. Anti-incumbency could be a factor for Modi, as his report card is not very flattering. The bottom line is whether people are willing to give him one more chance.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the latest entry into politics, also has emerged as a factor. There is a kind of newness and untested quality about her and with her articulation, presentable persona and the Gandhi family mystique she could play a role. However, political analysts feel Priyanka will have a 'limited impact' as the political arithmetic, caste politics and alliance challenges might make the going tough for her. Also she has come too late.

The BSP supremo Mayawati has been in politics for decades but she has become a factor this time because the BSP is being touted as an important player. Many parties are turning to Mayawati because the BSP votes are transferable. In UP, if the ‘Gathbandhan’ wins a sizeable number of seats, she will play a “kingmaker” role if there is a hung Parliament. She also has prime ministerial ambitions.

The RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, though serving his sentence in Ranchi jail, is a key player in Bihar. The feedback from the state is that his jail sentence has created sympathy for the leader and using this he is planning turn the tide in favour of the RJD-Congress alliance.

National security has become an important factor, which the BJP wants to milk to the full extent as Pulwama and the retaliatory Balakot air strikes have become the pivot of the BJP poll narrative. However, it may be difficult to sustain the momentum for the next two months, as the opposition wants to bring back the real issues like jobs, demonetization, GST, agrarian distress etc.

Rural distress is yet another factor. Though the BJP is seen as the urban party, the rural voters had played a big role in 2014 and voted for Modi but they are disenchanted with the party after five years. The agrarian distress is an equally important factor in view of the increasing number of farmers’ suicides. This was said to be one of the reasons for the BJP’s defeat in the three states in the Hindi heartland in December. They need to be wooed and cajoled if Modi wants to come back.

Jobs might be yet another factor, as the youth are disillusioned on this front. Modi has not been able to provide the number of jobs he had promised in 2014. The unemployment figures have reached at their thirty- year high. This issue could overtake all other issues for the young people.

The 130 million first time voters are crucial. In 2014, about 150 million first time voters voted for Modi. About 1.5 lakh first time voters have registered for each seat and most of them are not tied to any ideology. Most political parties have made them their focus group for the upcoming elections.

Women voters too have become important for the political parties. According to data from the Election Commission the average turnout in general elections increased significantly in 2014 and the gender gap in terms of voter turnout was also lowest in the last general elections since Independence. Significantly, the BJD has announced 33 per cent reservation for women in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Trinamool Congress has set aside 41 per cent of the seats while the Congress President Rahul Gandhi has announced 33 per cent reservation for women in government jobs. The BJP too is wooing the women through many government programmes. .

World over, many leaders have won and lost election on the economy factor. In fact, Modi came to power riding on economy issue. However, his initiatives like demonetization and the GST have not gone down well with the electorate. The opposition is hoping to pin him down on the economic issues.

Caste factor is a reality in every election, and the electoral arithmetic to win elections is mainly based on the caste equation. Most parties select their candidates based on their caste.

Above all, the social media has become an important factor for campaign and influencing the voters. All parties have used the social media in 2014 and more so now.

The interplay of these factors or combination of them would be important for the polls results. Parties have to address them to win Lok Sabha 2019. (IPA Service)