However, BJP led NDA government didn't bring the bill in the Rajya Sabha following strong protests in the northeastern region. BJP sensing the mood of the region thought it better not to put the bill in the Rajya Sabha causing the bill to die on its own. With the death of the bill, AGP preferred to rejoin the BJP led NDA umbrella in Assam. But, this flip-flop hasn't gone well with the supporters of the AGP.

Assam's major regional party has been declining for over a decade. AGP’s vote percentage has reduced from 20 per cent in 2004 to 14.6 per cent in 2009 to just a meagre 3.80 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, party won 2 seats which was reduced to 1 in 2009 to zero in the 2014 elections. AGP, which once used to be the formidable player in the state forming the state government twice, weakened to such an extent that in 2016 state assembly elections to remain connected to Assam's politics, the party decided to play a junior player to the BJP — which in the past used to be AGP's junior ally. AGP won 14 seats with 8.1 per cent in alliance with the BJP and joined the Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal led BJP government in the state.

After the AGP's withdrawal from the BJP led state government to protest against the Citizenship Bill, there was a hope that the party is seriously trying to revive itself banking on Assam regionalism — out of which the party was born. Many thought that regionalism, which has been void following the AGP's decline in the state, would once again be alive with the party's strategy to revive itself riding on the Assamese resentment against the Citizenship Bill. But, AGP's decision to unfold its umbrella under the NDA's within a period of two months just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls points to party leadership’s attempt to keep it relevant. AGP knows very well that in the upcoming 2019 polls, there are no possible chances to win a single seat from the state by contesting alone. For the party winning no seat again in 2019 like the 2014 polls would be a disaster. So, the party leadership was left with no choice but to reverse its earlier decision and ultimately joining the BJP. Although, Congress gave signals to the AGP for an alliance but the regional party didn't want to ally with the Congress — its main arch rival in the state.

AGP has been allotted three Lok Sabha seats — Dhubri, Kaliabor and Barpeta — by the BJP. In the last election, Dhubri and Barpeta were won by All India United Democratic Front led by Badruddin Ajmal while the Kaliabor was won by Congress' candidate Gaurav Gogoi, who is the son of former state Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Dhubri is the seat of Badruddin Ajmal who is contesting this time too. But AGP is worried whether the core voters would vote for the party candidates. There is dissatisfaction among its voters for its decision to ally with the BJP which further aroused after saffron party’s decision to cede those seats to the AGP which were won by the opposition in the last election. Already senior AGP leader and former state Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta has expressed his discontent on the party's decision of regrouping with the BJP.

AGP knows that the seats given to the party are not easy to win. Kaliabor seat has been a traditional bastion of the Congress. In the last 2014 polls, Congress won the seat by securing 38 per cent votes followed by BJP and AIUDF who got 30 per cent and 19.8 per cent votes respectively. AGP which contested alone secured only 6.7 per cent votes. So, if the votes of BJP and AGP are added together, the vote percentage stands at 36.7 per cent — which means that the contest would be a closer. But AIUDF which polled 19.8 per cent votes last time has decided not to put a candidate in this seat. AIUDF's voters are mainly Muslims. So, in the absence of AIUDF, there is high chance that the voters of the party would be voting for the Congress candidate making difficult for the AGP-BJP combine to snatch the seat.

In the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency, AIUDF stands strong where the party supremo Ajmal is contesting who won last time by securing 43.3 per cent votes. Congress and BJP secured 26.5 per cent and 21.8 per cent votes respectively. AGP got a meagre 0.7 per cent votes — which means that BJP+AGP votes stand at 22.5 per cent votes. The arithmetic indicates that grabbing this seat would be a very laborious task for the AGP-BJP alliance. Only in the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat, AGP+BJP looks strong in arithmetics. During the last elections, voting percentage of the both parties if added together stands at 35.3 per cent — which is 2.7 per cent more than the AIUDF which won the constituency. Congress secured 23 per cent votes. So, if the vote transfer is smooth between the two allies, AGP has the chance to grab this seat as far as arithmetics is concerned.

However, the main concern is whether the BJP voters would transfer their votes to the AGP. In the ground, there remains a bitterness between the supporters of the two allies. Both the parties contested against each other in the panchayat elections held last year. Plus, AGP's stiff criticism against the BJP regarding the Citizenship Bill and snapping of ties with the saffron party is not viewed positively by the BJP supporters. AGP's decision to re-ally with the BJP is seen as an opportunistic step by the saffron party's supporters who are sure that BJP doesn’t need the help of the beleaguered AGP.

During the last 2016 assembly election which was contested by the two parties together, BJP's contested vote share was 42.5 per cent while AGP's share was 33.7 per cent — which indicates a gap of 8.8 per cent. This election data shows that a section of BJP's supporters didn't vote for the AGP in the 2016 polls and given the current situation effortless transfer of votes between the two allies appears a challenging task. The regional party, which is already struggling to discontinue the tag of opportunism for re-allying with the BJP, has a tough time ahead. If AGP fails to win any Lok Sabha seat this time, this would be the last nail in the coffin for the regional party to stay relevant in Assam’s politics. (IPA Service)