He changed the narrative for elections in Kerala by invoking the Sabarimala issue, flouting the Election Commission strictures against it. His charge that the situation in Kerala was such that one can’t even mention Lord Ayyappa without risking jail had such telling effect that it became the most important agenda for the elections. The issue was, of course, there all along, but was always discussed in a hush-hush tone. Modi made it open.

Most probably, he will get away lightly from the Election Commission. The CPI-M had complained to the commission asking for action against the prime minister. But nothing has been heard of it yet. Meanwhile, the voting is over and people came out in huge numbers to express their feelings. It is too early to say whether BJP will be the beneficiary or to what extent. But Sabarimala is believed to have played a huge role in vote consolidation, both among the majority communities and the minorities.

The potential impact of Modi’s move could not have been lost on chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who made a desperate last-minute bid to contain the damage. He tried to turn the tables on Modi, claiming that it was his government that asked the state government to enforce prohibitory orders in Sabarimala and other trouble spots.

Worried by the possible impact of Modi’s claim on uncommitted voters, especially at the fag end of the campaign when polling was only days away, the chief minister challenged the prime minister to cite at least one case where invoking of God’s name invited punishment.
And then he launched a counter-offensive, although it was a less than straight forward move. Vijayan quoted from a Union home ministry directive to the state government, citing its number (No. 11034/01/2018 IS IV GoI Ministry of Home Affairs – Internal Security) instructing the state government to clamp “appropriate prohibitory orders” and keep a close watch on “dissemination of adverse information through social media” for ensuring that “no breach of law and order takes place”.

But the chief minister was clearly trying to misrepresent facts. The cited directive is, in fact, a fax sent to the chief secretaries and the director generals of police of the three states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka on the need to beef up security arrangements in the southern states in the wake of the ongoing protests against the Supreme Court order allowing entry of women of all age groups to the Sabarimala temple.

Pinarayi conveniently withheld the fact that it was a general advisory sent to the southern states and not a specific directive to the Kerala government.

The advisory referred to the campaigns of certain civil and women’s rights activists, Left parties and fronts and pro-Left-wing extremism groups in favour of women’s entry into the shrine and have been using women to achieve this, it pointed out.

The ministry also asked the states to closely monitor the dissemination of various “adverse” messages through social media and the Internet services. It also asked the administrations to ensure that there is no breach of law and order.

“As per the information received, comprehensive security arrangements would be required as the Sabarimala Shrine on the date of it opening for monthly rituals on 17.10.2018. In the backdrop of the State Government's decision to implement the recent order of Hon'ble Supreme Court to allow women of all ages to visit the shrine and wide­spread protests against the same from various quarters.

“Certain civil/women's rights activists, Left parties/fronts and pro-LWE groups have been campaigning in favour of women's entry into the shrine and actively using women to do so on 17.10 2018. While opposing groups/activists have threatened that they would not allow entry of women Inside the shrine on that day. Hindu outfits plan to organise protest programmes on 17.10.2018 against Hon'ble Court's order at Nilackal village m Pathanamthitta district and Erumeli village In Kottayam district.

“Separately, Ayyappa devotees, Hindu outfits and certain caste-based outfits have been organizing State-wide protest against the Hon’ble Court's order. Participation in these protests has ranged from 50-3000. including participation of sizeable number of women. Hindu outfits have also organized a few protest programmes in neighbouring states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

“In view of the above, all necessary precautionary measures may be taken to maintain law and order and appropriate security arrangements may be made co prevent any untoward incident. Appropriate prohibitory orders be issued and a close watch may be kept on dissemination of adverse information through social media and internet services, to ensure that no breach of law and order takes place.”

In hind sight, it seems that Sabarimala has turned the tide of the Kerala elections, most probably against the ruling Left Front. It is difficult to say who the beneficiary is and how far it can take the state BJP. But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: its negative impact will be borne by the CPI-M and the Left Front, particularly chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan.(IPA Service)