Modi’s headache began when the three caste-based parties – Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) came together to form a coalition to challenge BJP in the country’s largest state Uttar Pradesh (UP) having 80 constituencies. In 2014 polls BJP won 71 seats from UP and its ally Apna Dal won two. In fact in 2014, BJP came to power by winning 190 seats out of a total of 225 seats in the Hindi heartland that comprises of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

However the Modi-Shah duo strategy was able to circumvent the opposition forces and win a handsome 177 seats in the current polls in the Hindi heartland, entailing a loss of only 13 seats as compared to the previous parliamentary polls. This limited damage of 13 seats was mainly due to the loss of nine seats in UP. The party did make up this loss with new gains in West Bengal where it won 18 seats, in Odisha where it won eight seats for the first time. In the prime minister’s home state Gujarat, the BJP won all the 26 seats. Its new gains were also from northeast India and the southern state of Karnataka where it won 25 out of 28 seats.

In the process the main opposition party, Indian National Congress though could improve its tally from 44 to 52 seats fell short of the required number to designate its leader as Leader of the Opposition in the Lower House of the Parliament.

How could the BJP overcome the caste arithmetic in UP? In UP in the last 2014 polls BJP got 42.3 per cent votes, while SP, BSP and RLD together polled 42.5 per cent votes. This time BJP’s vote share rose to 49.56 per cent while that of SP-BSP-RLD combine fell to 38.89 per cent. The SP’s tally remained the same at five seats as in 2014 polls, while the BSP which scored nil in the last elections got 10 seats. The RLD scored a duck. A deeper analysis of the situation shows that the BSP supremo Mayawati, who did not contest this time, chose to campaign for her candidates. While the BSP got the benefit of transfer of the vote bank of SP, it was not vice versa. Another aspect is that the castes represented by these parties were at loggerheads most of the time. The Jats did not pull on well with Jatavs and Jatavs were not comfortable with Yadavs. Modi in his electioneering trail, attempted to engineer a split by terming the alliance as “Mahamilawati” meaning an uncomfortable combination.

The BJP took the advantage of wooing non-Yadav backward class of SP votebank, who did not prefer Yadav domination. Besides there was an internal division in the Yadav clan. Similarly the BJP wooed non-Jatav dalits of the BSP vote bank. The Jats who are uncomfortable with the alliance with BSP, majority of them did not even vote for the RLD supremo and his sons.

Thus while the loss of seats in the Hindi heartland could be contained, the BJP could garner more seats in new areas.

Modi was the sole campaigner for BJP as well as its alliance partners. The feeling in the common people was much for him rather than his party. They wanted to see him as prime minister once again.

Modi attempted several experiments in his campaign trail. He began with promising sops in the interim Budget for the year and to complete his unfinished task. Spoke of his development agenda and the achievements of his government. But this did not go down well. People were reeling under the impact of demonetisation, farm distress, joblessness and adverse impact of the introduction of GST. Finally he had to resort to projecting him as a “strongman” who can defend the country’s sovereignty. After the terror attack in Pulwama and air strikes at terrorist hideout in Balakot in Pakistan came handy and boosted his image. The earlier surgical strike and recently the testing of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) have also raised his image in public perception as a “strong man”. His party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has brought “nationalism” to the fore to counter the opposition onslaught.

The Congress on the other hand resorted to bring to fore the “irregularities “the Rafale deal. The Congress chief, Rahul Gandhi even went to the extent of calling Modi as “Chowkidar chor” – the prime minister who is to guard the country’s interests is a thief. This did not go down well with the people as Modi has already marketed himself as a “strong man” to protect the country’s sovereignty.

The Congress should have concentrated more on the positive agenda of its election manifesto. It should have concentrated more on the the adverse impact of demonetisation drive, sudden introduction of GST, joblessness, farm distress and unfulfilled promises of Modi government. The negative campaign of the Congress .gave Modi a handle. The Congress are other opposition failed to project a viable alternative and name a person who can take over Modi as the prime minister. Thus people felt that a “strong man” like Modi can deliver in the interests of the country.(IPA Service)