Ever since its formation in 1964, the CPI(M) had been dependent on Basu and Promode Dasgupta for guidance. If the party could carry on without too much difficulty after the latter's death in the early Eighties, the reason was Basu's presence at the helm. In fact, it will not be an exaggeration to say that the CPI(M) became a virtual one-man party in the state after Dasgupta's death since none of the other leaders could remotely match Basu's charisma and popularity.

Even after Basu stepped down from the chief minister's post in 2000, he continued to play the role of a guardian to whom the party could turn at times of trouble, as when Mamata Banerjee's agitations grew in intensity towards the middle of last year. Unfortunately, Basu's death has taken place at a time when the party's fortunes are at their lowest ebb. Even the previously unthinkable possibility of a defeat in the next assembly election is no longer summarily discounted.

Although it is true that Basu's presence may not have helped the CPI(M) to avert a disaster, at least he would have been able to give sound advice, which would have been listened to not only by the Marxists, but by the other Left Front parties as well. Such deference will not be commanded either by Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee or Left Front chairman Biman Bose, whose positions are very much in the second tier of leadership despite their high official and political designations.

What is more, the manner in which Bhattacharjee bungled the Singur-Nandigram affair has eroded much of his earlier authority. His competence as an administrator and a politician is very much under a cloud. Few in the CPI(M) and outside expect him to provide inspirational leadership as the date of next year's election draws near. Biman Bose's reputation is no better. If he was a reluctant successor to Anil Biswas's position as secretary of the CPI(M)'s state committee, the reason was apparently the realisation on his part that he lacked Biswas's unflappable temperament and persuasive skills.

There is little doubt that Bhattacharjee and Biman Bose will not be able to fend off the pressure from Left Front allies like the Forward Bloc and RSP, and especially their veteran leaders like Ashok Ghosh and Debabrata Bandopadhyay, when the parties get down to brass tacks for seat distribution. At times like this, Basu's domineering presence will be sorely missed since the smaller parties are likely to become more assertive because of the belief that, for the first time in many years, the CPI(M) is genuinely vulnerable because of the possibility of defeat.

The scene will be further complicated for the Marxists by the fact that the relations between the state committee and the central leadership are not all that cordial. It is no secret that Basu had opposed the decision to withdraw support from the Manmohan Singh government, which was seen to have been vigorously pushed through by Prakash Karat. The revelation by Somnath Chatterjee that Basu had told him to preside over the trust vote in Parliament was evidence of the rift between the state and central leaders.

Not surprisingly, one of Basu's known acolytes, Subhas Chakravarty, who died last year, had had a dig at Karat by saying that only those who contest elections should occupy such crucial posts. The fallout from such differences cannot but be damaging, not least because critical times may lead to more of such hidden views coming to the fore. In any event, the combination of an incompetent and largely clueless state leadership and obstinate central leaders who are seen to be lacking in grassroots experience is not a helpful one for the CPI(M).

All this would have been good news for the Left's opponents but for the fact that the ties between the Trinamool Congress and the Congress are not of the best. The strains, which became apparent when the Congress teamed up with the CPI(M) in the Siliguri municipality, have become worse with the differences surfacing over various issues. These include, among others, the seeming cordiality between the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister, which Mamata Banerjee noticed to her chagrin during Manmohan Singh's two recent visits to Kolkata, the acquisition of farm land for the setting up of a nuclear power plant and the approach to the Maoist problem.

Although the Congress has conceded Mamata Banerjee's claim to be the chief minister if the alliance is able to win, it will be wary of the mercurial Trinamool Congress leader's whimsical ways, which could be seen in her decision to boycott the Prime Minister's second visit. It isn't only the rift between the two partners which will worry the electorate, but also the prospective chief minister's unpredictability and anti-development outlook, which is again clear from her stance against the nuclear plant. (IPA Service)