It is true that no party will die just because somebody goes out and somebody comes in but the Samajwadi Party cannot regain its old glory even if it goes back to the socialist roots in the changed situation.

Until yesterday Amar Singh was the face of the party at the national level. He was the one who was talking to other leaders in Parliament and outside. He was the one who was making deals with them for the party. He was the main fundraiser of the party. He was distributing tickets. He brought glamorous film stars to the party. He was the one who managed the election campaign. In fact, even “ Netaji”, as Mulayam is called, admitted that without Amar Singh he could not function. Even today, insiders say that left to himself he would not have accepted Amar Singh's resignation.

At the same time, Amar Singh has not endeared himself to all, particularly to the family of Netaji. His detractors in the Samajwadi Party, who were growing in number over the years, saw him as the villain. For instance, those leaders who left the party like Azam Khan or Raj Babbar or Beni Prasad Verma and those who were sidelined like Janeswar Misra all make him responsible for their plight. Mulayam Singh's son Akhilesh Singh has now become the party president and wants to have his way, which is not palatable to Amar Singh. The final straw was when Akhilesh's wife lost the elections recently. Naturally Mulayam ultimately said goodbye to Amar Singh.

What is the future of SP, which has created its own space in U.P politics? Amar Singh's resignation has come at a wrong time for Mulayam Singh when the party is licking its wounds after the electoral defeat. There is every need to build the party against the onslaught of the ruling BSP as well as the rising Congress. Does Mulayam have the stamina to do so?

UP politics is so strange that every party is trying to snatch space from the other. For instance, the Congress lost its core voters years ago. Gradually the BJP took away its upper castes. The BSP snatched the Dalits and the Samajwadi Party, the Muslims. Later the SP took away the Thakurs and BSP weaned the Brahmins away from the BJP. Now the Congress is trying to raise its head by wooing away a little bit of upper castes, a little bit of Dalits and a section of Muslims and come back. In such a scenario, where does the SP stand?

The Samajwadi Party has many problems to face after the exit of Amar Singh. First of all, the Netaji is in the process of handing over the party to his son Akhilesh. It is for the younger leader to face the onslaught of both Rahul Gandhi and Mayawati, which is not going to be easy. Secondly, Mulayan himself is not in the same person he was 18 years ago when he floated the party. Things have changed so much; equations have altered; so have the aspirations of the voters of the new generation. Thirdly, SP is on the downslide and there is nothing visible for it to go up either by way of a charismatic leadership or electoral prospects or even funds after the exit of Amar Singh. Along with him goes the glamour of the party, and Jaya Prada and Jaya Bachchan and Sanjay Singh may leave soon.

The party's base is also cracking with the Muslims moving towards the Congress. Fourthly, the Assembly elections are more than two years away and Mayawati is well entrenched as of now. Unless the SP aligns with some other party, it is not gong to be easy to succeed. Fifthly, the SP has no space at the Centre for maneuverability. Sixthly, Amar Singh's exit may leave the SP as the all-Yadav party, even if all the netas who had left the party come back.

As far Amar Singh's future, many believe that he will find a place for himself somewhere if his health permits. There are rumours about his floating a party, joining Kalyan Singh's party, going with the NCP or with the Congress. But it is also a fact that he may not be able to find another Mulayam Singh who would give him so much political space. Will he be able to play a similar role in national and UP politics? Since elections to UP are two years away, there is plenty of time for both the leaders to chalk out their course. Only time will tell where they stand. (IPA Service)