This is the most important message the by-election has delivered. And all the three fronts would do well to learn appropriate lessons and apply the correctives forthwith.

True, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has won three out of the five constituencies which went to the polls. The front retained Manjeswaram and Ernakulam, but lost Konni and Vattiyurkavu to the rival Left Democratic Front (LDF). It can, however, draw comfort from the upset victory in Arur, a traditional stronghold of the CPI(M).

The Vattiyurkavu result first. The most significant upshot is that the casteist organisations have been administered a stinging slap by the enlightened voters of the constituency. Vattiyurkavu should have been a cakewalk for the UDF in the normal circumstances. But it was not. The open appeal by the Nair Service Society (NSS) to vote for the UDF boomeranged on the front. The voters rejected the NSS call with the contempt it deserved. That is a heart-warming development which must gladden the secular forces in the state.

Of course, the severe infighting in the Congress was the major factor for the UDF loss. The bickering over the selection of candidate has obviously taken a toll. And the staying away from the last day rally by senior Congress leader K Muralidharan, whose candidate was not given the ticket, sent a wrong message to the voters. The stinging snub to the casteist forces is clear from the fact that in all the NSS strongholds, the CPI(M) candidate led and the UDF candidate came third.

It is a morale-boosting victory for LDF candidate V K Prashanth. The LDF won half the battle when it chose the Thiruvananthapuram Mayor as its candidate. Prashanth’s clean image and impressive record in office stood him in good stead. Another message from his victory is that people care more for the image and reputation of the candidates than anything else.

Factional feud cost the Congress dear in Konni, otherwise a safe seat for the UDF. The defeat of the UDF candidate makes it clear that the supporters of Adoor Prakash, the strongman of Konni, did not extend their full support to the Congress candidate from Konni. The boycott of the UDF rally on the last day of the campaign by Prakash, whose candidate was denied the ticket, proved the last straw which caused the UDF defeat after 23 years. The margin of victory of the LDF candidate – close to 10,000 votes – speaks for itself.

But the euphoria of the LDF has been marred by the unexpected defeat of the CPI(M) candidate in Arur, which has stood b y the LDF over the decades. The victory of the Congress candidate Shanimol Usman has stunned the CPI(M). The unkindest cut has been that Usman led in almost all the booths considered CPI(M)’s fortresses. The LDF and the CPI(M) has a lot to explain for the loss of Arur although the margin of victory is slender – just over 2,000 votes.

The CPI(M) also blotted its copybook with its experiment in Manjeswaram where the party candidate came a poor third. The candidate’s stand on many issues, mainly the Sabarimala issue was at odds with the official CPI(M) stand. No wonder, the U-turn was rejected by the voters. Such appeals on religious basis by a left party is a luxury the LDF cannot afford. It detracted a great deal from the party’s overall performance. The UDF can take solace from the victory of its candidate from Manjeswaram, where the B JP came second.

True, the UDF won from Ernakulam, a safe seat for the front. But the narrow margin of victory – by a mere 3,700 votes - shows the extent of the weakening of the UDF in the constituency. A major cause behind the unimpressive UDF show has been the utter failure of the Kochi Corporation, under the control of the UDF, to prevent the heavy waterlogging in Ernakulam on the polling day, which greatly affected polling percentage. It attracted severe criticism from even the Kerala High Court, which went to the extent of seeking the dismissal of the Corporation!

The most severe setback has been suffered by the BJP, whose volte share has come down drastically both in Vattiyurkavu and Konni. In Vattiyurkavu, the party suffered a 10 per cent vote loss. The replacement of popular BJP leader Kummanam Rajashekharan by a comparatively lesser known candidate did damage the prospects of the BJP. The insult to Kummanam angered the RSS so much that it did not campaign wholeheartedly for the BJP candidate. There is speculation that a big slice of the BJP vote went to the CPI(M) candidate. The victory margin of CPI(M) candidate is impressive. Prashanth won by over 14,000 votes. The BJP scored a self goal in Manjeswaram by shifting K. Surendran to Konni. Surendran had lost the last assembly election by a mere 89 votes. Groupism forced his shifting to Konni where he came a poor third. Even the open support by a section of Orthodox Christians for the BJP in Konni did not help the BJP. Except in Manjeswaram, the BJP came third in the other constituencies.

At the end of the day, the results hold lessons for all the fronts. The BJP must realise that Kerala is not UP or Gujarat. Communal politics is alien to the ethos of Kerala. The party has a lot of introspection to do. Its poor show could cause a change of guard at the State level as well.

Likewise, the UDF should shed its proclivity to play caste politics. Kerala has rejected it. That is the most significant upshot of the results. Also, groupism continues to be the Congress’s bane.

The CPI(M ) also has lessons to learn. Experiments which go against the party’s secular politics won’t do. That is the message from Manjeswaram defeat. What helped it to wrest two traditional UDF seats is the voters’ perception that as far as Kerala is concerned, the CPI(M) is the best bet to counter the communal forces led by the BJP-RSS and not the Congress. The verdict, in a way, is also an endorsement of the people-friendly policies implemented by the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF Government.

Last but not the least is the clear message from the voters: Do not take us for granted. And do not insult our intelligence. We will punish you if you try to be over smart. (IPA Service)