The electoral defeat of Jharkhand is definitely a major setback to the BJP — especially to the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine. This only has halted BJP's dream to conquer all the states of India. But at the same time, it would be wrong to arrive into conclusion at this stage that Modi magic has waned just on the basis of the verdict given by the electorate of Jharkhand. There are reasons that support this claim.

One of the major reasons is that Jharkhand election was mostly fought on local issues — where the current national issues like Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens hardly had any impact. BJP's major loss is due to the unpopularity of its own chief minister non-tribal Raghubar Das, the first one to complete a full term since the creation of Jharkhand in 2000. Even many reports had claimed of factionalisms inside the party arising due to the working style of Raghuvar Das, who himself lost to BJP rebel Saryu Rai, an erstwhile cabinet minister of Raghuvar government. This suggests that the loss has to do with the party’s failure to defuse internal rebellion. Also, for many within the party, this result was not unexpected. The central leadership of the party erred by not changing the unpopular chief minister in time — when there were clear signals of dissent within the party and in the ground level.

Another major reason is the tribal consolidation against the BJP. In fact, tribals account for 26 per cent of the state population. This can be attributed to the unsuccessful attempts by the Raghuvar government to change the land acquisition policy by amending the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act and Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act. The opposition Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, a tribal party, utilised this opportunity to turn the tribals against the BJP. The JMM led alliance, comprising Congress and RJD, shot in the arm by projecting Hemant Soren, a tribal, as the chief minister face against non-tribal Raghuvar Das. Besides, the consolidation of Muslims towards the alliance is also a factor. This is clear from the fact that most of the 30 seats that JMM won are from the areas where tribals and Muslims are dominant.

However, another glaring reality which can't be ignored is that BJP, which got 25 seats, managed to garner the highest vote share. The party's vote share this time was 33 per cent — while in 2014 it was 31 per cent. The increase in 2 per cent vote share can be attributed to the fact that in 2014, party fought 74 seats while this time it fought in 79. Nevertheless, this clearly points that somehow party managed to keep its vote bank intact with some subtractions and additions. Not only this, BJP’s major ally in the state, All Jharkhand Students' Union, which contested separately this time, managed to gather 8 per cent of the vote share. The combined vote share of BJP and AJSU takes the figure to 41 per cent — 6 per cent more than the vote share of the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance. Had BJP contested along with AJSU and also taking other NDA allies like JD(U) and LJP, the picture would have been different.

The Jharkhand's message for the BJP is to cultivate new regional leaders in the states. Modi's charisma can't be the only factor to win the state elections — unlike the Lok Sabha elections. The Jharkhand's electoral loss points to the electorates’ lukewarm response to the party's strategy to bring new leaders in the states not belonging to the dominant castes — like propping up a non-tribal face in Jharkhand or a non-Jat face in Haryana or a non-Maratha face in Maharashtra. Out of this, only Devendra Fadnavis card in Maharashtra has somehow been successful. It is not that this rule must be followed. In Tripura, where tribal votes account for 31 per cent, more than that of Jharkhand, CPM managed itself to be the dominant player in the tribal belt for 20 years with a non-tribal chief minister — Manik Sarkar. This importantly points to the organisational failure of state BJP, the party which is well known across the country for its strong organisation and proper management to reach out to the lower level.

Apart from failure to nurture new regional party leaders, Modi-Shah combine has to be accommodative with its allies. The party, which often take pride for well maintenance of “coalition dharma”, needs a serious introspection in regard to this. First step could be the restoring of the NDA at the centre level by organising regular meetings by forming a national level NDA committee — and also extending these committees to the state levels too. Already, LJP has demanded for a convenor for the NDA. For the time being, Modi and Shah can take solace that the BJP hasn't perished in Jharkhand and Modi magic hasn't waned, as opined by a section of intellectuals. Also, Ranchi has a message for the intellectuals that democracy in fact is strengthening in India with electorates being able to differentiate between Lok Sabha and assembly elections. (IPA Service)